Analysis On The Influencing Factors Of Tourism Economic Growth In Shanxi Province

Shanxi Province is one of the underdeveloped areas in our country,facing the problem of economic growth stagnation after the over-development of heavy industry.At present,China's economy is in a new normal.Under the pressure of downward economic growth,the tourism industry has maintained a relatively stable economic growth,which provides strong support for Shanxi Province to achieve the economic development goal.Therefore,it is significant to make a scientific analysis of the factors that affect the tourism economic growth of Shanxi Province by studying the relevant factors and establishing the relevant models.Based on the theories of tourism demand and tourism supply,this paper analyzes the tourism economy of Shanxi Province from the aspects of social and economic conditions,people's living conditions,the development of the tertiary industry,the status of related industries,the scale of tourism economy industry,tourism environment,government factors and cultural level.Using the ridge regression,Lasso and Elastic Net method to screen 32 indexes are selected,and the mean square error corresponding to the three models is calculated by k-fold cross validation,so as to compare the selection results of the three models.The results show that: ridge regression method selects 11 important factors from 32 indicators.So the performance of Lasso is better than ridge regression and Elastic Net in the application of this paper.Therefore,the following analysis of this paper will use 11 factors which are obtained through Lasso to analyze and establish the model.After variable selection,according to the semi parametric regression theory,a partial linear additive model is established between the 11 factors selected by Lasso and the total tourism income.The interpretation of the model is over 99%,and the fitting effect of the model is very good.Based on the analysis of partial linear additive model,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to increase tourism revenue.The results show that the tourism economy of Shanxi province keeps stable growth.The factors that have an important impact on the tourism economy of Shanxi Province are: GDP,rural per capita consumption expenditure,tertiary sector of the economy,number of domestic tourists received,length of railway lines,length of road lines,passenger volume,number of accommodation and catering enterprises,general public budget revenue,total import and export trade,government support for the tourism industry..Some suggestions are put forward:We should correctly understand the relationship between tourism economy and regional social and economic development,pay attention to the training and introduction of Tourism Management Talents.Moreover,the government and all sectors of the community should increase investment in tourism-related industries,standardize the accommodation,catering and transportation industries.In addition,we can rely on the advantages of tourism resources to develop characteristic tourism,appropriately develop the scale of the tourism economy and pay attention to the cultivation of tourism products in the off-season.Finally,we can increase the degree of opening up to the outside world and create well-known brands of tourism.The government should vigorously support the development of tourism.The government and all sectors of society should work together.We can build the Shanxi's tourism industry into a tourism boutique with good management,good service and rich cultural connotation,so as to attract more domestic and foreign tourists.In this way,the tourism economy of Shanxi Province will develop faster and better.