The Influence Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On The Bank Risk-taking Channel

Since the financial crisis in 2008,the domestic economy has been under great downward pressure,and there are more and more uncertainties in domestic economic policies.Large policy volatility makes it difficult to maintain policy coherence and consistency.Many scholars begin to pay attention to the impact of economic policy uncertainty on micro enterprises.As a special enterprise,there are few literatures about the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the bank risk-taking channels.The bank risk-taking mentioned in this paper refers to monetary policy transmission channel of bank risk-taking,which has been widely confirmed after the financial crisis.Therefore,this paper will explore whether the uncertainty of economic policy can regulate the risktaking channels of banks.First of all,this paper elaborates the theoretical mechanism of monetary policy bank risk-taking transmission,and the possible impact of economic policy uncertainty on the transmission effect of this transmission channel.Then,select 73 commercial banks from 2008 to 2018 in China.The empirical steps are as follows:Firstly,taking the nonperforming loan rate of banks as the proxy index of bank risk-taking,the interbank lending rate of Shanghai as the price-oriented monetary policy index,and the M2 growth rate as the quantitative monetary policy index,analyzing the impact of monetary policy on bank risk-taking.The second step is to introduce the cross-term between the economic policy uncertainty index and the monetary policy agency index,and analyze whether the economic policy uncertainty will influence the transmission effect of the bank risk-taking channel.Thirdly,analyzing whether there are differences between the economic upstream and downstream periods in the regulation effect of economic policy uncertainty on the effect of the bank risk-taking channel.The fourth step is to analyze whether there are differences in the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the transmission effect of the bank risk-taking channel during the period of monetary policy relaxation and tightening.Finally,after "channel identification",using pure monetary policy bank risk-taking channel to verify whether the above conclusions are still valid.Through theoretical analysis and empirical research,conclusions: First of all,the bank risk-taking channel exists in China.Secondly,uncertainty of economic policy will weaken the transmission effect of the bank risk-taking channel.The higher the uncertainty,the weaker the transmission effect of the bank risk-taking channel.Thirdly,the economic policy cycle has an asymmetric effect on the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy.The monetary policy cycle has an asymmetric effect on the bank risk-taking channel.Finally based on channel identification,after eliminating the influence of other channels,pure monetary policy bank risk-taking channel still exists,and economic policy uncertainty still weakens the channel,and weakens relatively stronger in the period of economic operation and monetary policy easing.The above four conclusions are still valid after excluding the other channels.The main contribution of this paper is that it is the first time to introduce the uncertainty of economic policy into the bank risk-taking channel.Secondly,it explores the asymmetry of different economic cycles and monetary policy cycles,and whether the regulatory role is different in different cycles.Finally,considering channel identification,and after eliminating other relevant channels,the consistency of the above conclusions is verified.It enriches the research on the bank risk-taking effect of monetary policy.