Evaluation Of Sivies'Social Credit Based On Survival Analysis

SMEs are the most active force in my country's economic development,but they still face a serious survival dilemma-financing difficulties,which seems to have become a "blocker" on the development path of every SME.In the financing process,credit financing has become the main means for small and mediumsized enterprises to solve this dilemma.However,due to the small size of the enterprise,the management is not standardized,and the published information about the enterprise is not perfect,leading to the process of applying for credit financing from financial institutions.The asymmetric information between the two parties affected the credit evaluation results and could not be successfully financed.In order to solve the financing problems of small and medium-sized enterprises,the dynamic survival analysis method is applied to the social credit evaluation of small and medium-sized enterprises,and a wider range of corporate social credit evaluation indicators,such as relevant information of enterprise managers,are considered.The main content of the article is divided into two parts.The first part is based on the traditional credit score card,considering the survival analysis method.Quantitative analysis of the forecasting ability of the company's financial indicators and corporate quality indicators,that is,the IV value of each indicator is calculated and sorted,and the accounts receivable turnover rate,total asset turnover rate,and gross sales value of the IV value are selected.Interest rate,asset growth rate,cash ratio,interest protection multiple B,long-term bond to working capital ratio,company manager's gender,age and overseas study experience 10 indicators constitute the SME social credit evaluation index system,and according to this indicator The system builds a traditional survival analysis model—cox model,which estimates the survival status of the enterprise and predicts and discriminates the possibility of the enterprise's default.The prediction accuracy rate obtained is 86.1%.The second part is based on the application of traditional survival analysis methods in enterprise credit evaluation,considering the influence of the interaction between indicators on enterprise credit,and applying the survival tree to the social credit evaluation of SMEs.Using the survival tree model for the analysis of SMEs' social credit assessments,the interaction between the three indicators of interest protection multiples,cash flow due debt protection multiples,and the ratio of net cash flow generated by operating activities to current liabilities was obtained for SMEs.The survival probability has a significant influence,and the prediction and discrimination of the survival status of SMEs are obtained,and the prediction accuracy rate is 87.2%.When considering the application of the survival analysis method in the SMEs' social credit evaluation,the main innovations are:(1)Quantify the index prediction ability through the IV value,and select the index to build a credit evaluation index system based on the traditional credit score card In the above,the survival analysis method is combined to estimate the survival state of the enterprise,and the model prediction ability is analyzed.(2)In the credit evaluation of small and medium-sized enterprises,on the basis of the impact of single factors on credit,consider the impact of the interaction between factors on corporate credit.(3)When considering the interaction of indicators,the survival tree model is applied to the credit evaluation of SMEs for the first time.The survival tree model is used to obtain the influence of the interaction of indicators on the survival state of the enterprise,and the prediction ability of the survival tree model is analyzed.