The Measurement And The Analysis Of The Spatio-temporal Evolution Of The Construction Dividends Of Megaprojects

The investment and construction of megaprojects has always been an important driving force for regional social and economic development,with construction dividends.In the context of the continuous high-speed construction of megaprojects in China and the world,megaproject decision-making and construction dividend assessment are facing higher requirements.Government departments urgently need to pay attention to the construction dividends of megaprojects,and find practical,scientific,and accurate quantitative methods to determine the performance of construction dividends at various stages of construction,operation,and future operations,as well as along and around cities.Therefore,this thesis studies the construction dividends of a megaproject from the perspective of predictability,spatiality,and dynamicity,gives the conceptual formula of construction dividends according to the core idea of with-andwithout comparison method,and establishes models with difference-in-difference and spatial measurement theory to obtain robust measurement results.The specific work includes the following three aspects:First,based on the relevant dividend concept and related literature on construction dividends,the connotation of construction dividends is interpreted as: a positive effect on the development and progress of human society,which is caused by the movement of labor,capital,land and other factors caused by increased engineering investment and changes in transportation costs.Then,based on the idea of with-and-without comparison method,according to whether the spatial correlation is considered or not,the conceptual formulas for megaproject construction dividend are given.Second,taking the economic dividend as an example,a qualitative analysis of the impact mechanism of megaproject construction dividends is carried out.The construction dividend of a major transportation project is reflected in the direct impact on the cities along the route,such as increasing output and driving the development of the construction and building materials industry during the construction period,and promoting economic growth,optimizing the industrial structure,improving corporate income,employment rate and labor income during the operation period.In addition,due to the flow of production factors such as labor and capital,the construction dividends also includes indirect impacts on neighboring cities,such as the possibility of increasing the output,the development of related industries,and corporate income of neighboring cities.Third,this thesis quantitatively analyzes the construction dividends based on conceptual formulas and related theories.Firstly,according to whether the spatial correlation is considered or not,the construction dividend measurement model is established separately,which is used to measure the construction dividend realized by the megaproject.Secondly,in the case of spatial correlation,the construction dividend evolution model is established from the spatial and temporal dimensions,which are used to explore the spatial law of the construction dividend,the maximum scope of the project,the temporal law of the construction dividend,and predict the construction dividend in the future operation phase.Finally,Guangle Expressway was studied as a case to verify the applicability of the models and measure the construction dividend of the project.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)The realized dividend is reflected in the promotion of economic growth and industrial development along the route and neighboring cities.(2)The project has short-term,medium-term and long-term dividends.The dividend during the operation period is more significant than the construction period.The construction dividends in the future operation phase is worthy of attention.(3)The indirect impact of the project is related to the distance between the surrounding cities and the construction area.(4)The meso-level and macro-level construction dividend is more significant.In summary,this thesis establishes models for the measurement of megaproject construction dividends,and analyzes the economic dividends of a megaproject with an example.These works have practical significance for the recognition and measurement of the construction dividend of megaprojects,as well as the planning and construction of megaprojects.