The Impact Of Deviant Strategy On Earnings Forecasts

The transparency and quality of information disclosure play an important role in improving the effectiveness of capital market.As an important way of information disclosure,earnings forecast has significant information content and plays an important role in alleviating the information asymmetry between listed companies and the external market.In 1998,China Securities Regulatory Commission(CSRC)formulated the earnings forecast system to reduce the internal and external information asymmetry and improve the usefulness of investors' decision-making.After years of development and revision,the current framework of China's performance forecast system is basically perfect,but the provisions on the disclosure content and form of the forecast information are still not detailed enough,which provides a certain choice space for listed companies to selectively disclose information,so companies can choose the opportunity to release performance forecast information according to their motivation needs.The release of performance information to the outside world can release the company's operation signals to the capital market in advance,which has an important impact on investors' decision-making.The academic research on the motivation of earnings forecast mainly focuses on the micro corporate governance perspective and macro market dimension,unified in the market transaction hypothesis,the manager ability signal hypothesis and the litigation cost hypothesis.The deviant strategy has an important impact on the operation risk and information asymmetry of listed companies.On the one hand,companies whose strategies deviate from the industry's conventional level tend to be different from the conventional industry standards and experience.The complex business activities brought about by their innovative business models tend to generate greater earnings volatility,thus facing higher uncertainty and operational risks,making it more difficult for them to gain the attention and recognition of the stakeholders;on the other hand,because of the deviation from the industry's conventional standards,the interests are related It is often difficult to use the existing experience of industry rules to judge them,which increases the cost of information acquisition,thus increasing the degree of information asymmetry between the company and the external market,making the legitimacy and compliance of listed companies more likely to be questioned.At present,the research on the influencing factors of the disclosure behavior of performance forecast in the literature at home and abroad focuses on the market behavior and the characteristics of senior executives.Few studies have made a detailed investigation on the disclosure behavior of performance forecast from the perspective of corporate strategy,which is the fundamental factor affecting the financial behavior of the company.So,what are the motivations of companies with greater deviant strategy to release earnings forecasts? For companies that deviate from the industry's conventional strategy,can earnings forecast play an effective role in alleviating information asymmetry?Based on strategic management theory,principal-agent theory,signaling theory,information asymmetry theory and reputation mechanism theory,this paper makes an empirical study of the relationship between deviant strategy and performance announcement disclosure,and further explores the impact of the property right nature of listed companies on the relationship between deviant strategy and earnings announcement disclosure,so as to explore the relationship between company strategy and ownership The effect of nature on financial information disclosure.Based on the research method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical test,this paper selects A share listed companies in China in 2012-2018 as the sample.The results show that:(1)in the full sample analysis,the greater the deviant strategy,the higher the precision,accuracy and timeliness of the earnings forecast of listed companies;(2)taking the nature of company property rights as the adjusting variable,the paper finds that the nature of property rights has an impact on the industry war Slight difference and earnings forecast fineness have a negative regulatory effect,that is to say,compared with private enterprises,the state-owned enterprises with higher agency cost in the first category are more likely to issue high-precision earnings forecast;(3)taking the quality of internal control as a regulating variable,we find that the quality of internal control has a negative regulating effect on the deviant strategy and the accuracy of earnings forecast,that is,the higher the quality of internal control,the greater the industry strategic difference,the less likely the company to issue low accuracy earnings forecast.This paper examines the impact of corporate strategy,a meso level feature,on the quality of disclosure of earnings forecast,expands the scope of research on the motivation of disclosure of earnings forecast,and enriches the relevant research on the economic consequences of deviant strategy.In addition,this paper enriches the research framework of corporate strategy on corporate financial behavior from a meso perspective.It provides a reference for further standardizing the governance mechanism of listed companies,establishing and improving the regulatory mechanism of China's securities market,and improving and optimizing the open and transparent investment environment.