Extreme Fluctuation Of Stock And Investment Strategy Of Game

The stock market is naturally speculative,especially the stock market with Chinese characteristics under the Chinese background.The investors in the stock market become more and more savvy,and the game between different stakeholders has also occurred.The causes of various strange phenomena appearing in the stock market,such as stock soaring and plunging,interest rate stagnation,and explosive diving,are all traceable.The extreme fluctuations in these stock markets are closely related to the behavior of the main players in the stock market.Relatedly,the process of pursuing the maximization of their own utility while following certain market rules is essentially a game process among various entities in the stock market.Institutional investors and retail investors,as part of the stock market investors,have contradictory and unified contradictions.This paper combines the fundamental and technical information to build a game model between the main investors of stock extreme volatility and retail investors.The key and the biggest innovation of this article are both making a more objective estimate of the value in the game payment matrix.The first is to search for the local highs and lows of the stock according to the definition of local highs and lows based on the historical data of the stock,and then combine the Bias deviation rate index to analyze the cumulative experience probability of the local highs and lows of the stock.The time point when the probability of the stock rising was ? 95% or ? 5% was selected as the extreme volatility point of the stock.Secondly,the fundamental and technical information is quantified,and the corresponding evaluation and weight are given to each information,so as to determine the probability of the stock's good and bad trends,and the corresponding expected return is combined to figure out the value in the game payment matrix,that is,the expected return of the main force and retail customers under different strategy combinations.Finally,the equilibrium solution of the extreme volatility point game matrix is ??obtained by the dash method and the maximum return method,and the optimal investment strategy of main force and retail investors are determined.Since the analysis is based on the analysis of extreme stock volatility,the equilibrium strategies obtained are pure strategies.This article is based on the research and analysis of the Shanghai Stock Index and individual stocks representing new hope.It is found that whether it is a large-cap index or a stock,the equilibrium strategies at local highs in the bull market are(main force buy,retail sell)and(main force sell,retail buy),and the equilibrium strategy at a local low in a bear market is(main purchase,retail purchase).This paper studies the traditional technical and fundamental information,and uses game theory to analyze the rules of mutual restriction and interaction between the participants in the extreme volatility points of stocks in China's stock market in order to derive reasonable results and use them to explain the actual problems in the stock market.The results of this article can not only provide reasonable guidance for the behavior of various participants in the market,but also provide useful suggestions for the government to formulate policies and rules with organizational and management responsibilities,which has strong theoretical significance and practical significance.This paper also has shortcomings in many aspects.It is caused by objective condition and own ability limitation.This article did not take into account all the fundamental and technical information of the extreme fluctuation points in the analysis process,but selected some representative and easily quantifiable indicators for analysis.So the determination of the evaluation results and weights of the selected evaluation indicators,and the estimation of benefits are still subjective.In addition,this paper does not consider the exit mechanism after stock purchases,etc.These aspects need to be further improved in the future.