An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Electronic Payment On China’s Economic Growth

Since the 21 st century,with the development of Internet information technology,electronic payment has gradually become popular in people’s trading activities with the advantages of low cost and high efficiency,and now it has largely replaced the traditional cash payment.From bank online banking payment to the third-party Internet payment,to the gradual popularization of mobile payment in recent years,the development of electronic payment has brought a more comprehensive impact on China’s economy,and has produced a wide range of economic effects.Studying the impact of e-payment on economic growth is conducive to a better understanding of the impact of e-payment,as well as guiding the formulation of industrial policies,monetary policies and fiscal policies.This paper uses factor analysis and empirical analysis to study the impact of e-payment on economic growth.An analysis of the factors that affect the macroeconomic growth of e-payment.First,the development of e-payment affects cross-border trade: e-payment is safe and efficient,reduces capital turnover time,reduces payment risk,has a favorable impact on cross-border trade,and promotes the development of cross-border e-commerce;second,the development of e-payment affects residents’ Consumption: the development of e-payment changes consumers’ consumption habits,and at the same time overlaps numerous borrowing and lending consumer products(such as Huabai,borrow Bai,Jingdong Baitiao and other financial products)improve the credit constraints of consumers,improve the consumption tendency,and electronic payment method brings about the saving of transaction costs,and promote the growth of transaction volume.In the empirical part,this paper first studies the impact of mobile payment on per capita consumption expenditure.Through the re classification of the national per capita consumption expenditure,this paper analyzes the impact of the use of mobile payment on the national per capita consumption expenditure and the amount of various types of consumption expenditure.The sample time range is 2013q1-2019q3,and the following conclusions are drawn: the use of mobile payment tpmp on the total national per capita consumption expenditure AVC,per capita consumption expenditure of clothing and food,and per capita consumption expenditure of housing The per capita consumption expenditure of the industry has an obvious promoting effect,and the order of the influence degree is: the per capita consumption expenditure of clothing and food category > the total per capita consumption expenditure of national residents AVC > the per capita consumption expenditure of housing and transportation category.Then,it makes an empirical analysis on the impact of electronic payment on economic growth.Based on the non cash payment of 2012q1-2019q3: online payment amount,mobile payment amount and GDP data,this paper establishes a vector autoregressive model(Va R).Through unit root test,cointegration test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,the following conclusions are drawn: first,in the first three periods,the third-party Internet payment and the third-party mobile payment all contribute to macroeconomic growth It has a promoting effect,but the influence gradually weakens and tends to be stable.Secondly,the contribution of online payment to economic growth is greater than that of mobile payment.The contribution of online payment first decreases and then increases in a narrow space(0.085-0.097).However,over time,the contribution of mobile payment gradually expands and the gap is gradually widened.In order to eliminate the endogenous problem of online payment amount,the paper introduces the tool variable index(the ratio of the third-party Internet payment market scale(easy to see data)to the total retail sales of social consumer goods,reflecting the degree of the third-party Internet payment use)for empirical analysis,and concludes that the tool variable index can eliminate the non cash payment: the endogenous influence of online payment amount TPWP,the index coefficient is 0.134,which means that every 1% increase in the index(reflecting the degree of payment electronization)can lead to an economic growth of 0.134%.Similarly,in order to eliminate the endogenous influence of mobile payment amount,the tool variable index1(index1 is equal to non cash payment: the ratio of mobile payment amount tpmp to total retail sales of social consumer goods,reflecting the use degree of mobile payment)is constructed.The result of tool variable regression and the original OLS regression are significant,and the difference of results can be ignored.The coefficient of index1 is 0.160,indicating that Every 1% increase in the index(reflecting the degree of electronization of mobile payment)can drive economic growth by 0.160%,which is slightly greater than the impact of online payment on economic growth.