Research On Overseas Infrastructure PPPs’ Risk Assessment Under The Background Of "The Belt And Road"

With the introduction of ‘the Belt and Road’ and economic globalization,more and more investors have shifted their vision from home to overseas.The comprehensive and high quality development of ‘the Belt and Road’ construction cannot do without the important foundation of infrastructure construction.However,countries along the Belt and Road is mainly developing countries with relatively backward economic level,and its infrastructure is not perfect enough.Therefore,infrastructure construction should be taken as a priority area for cooperation.Chinese enterprises actively implement the "going out" initiative.To solve the contradiction between capital gap and infrastructure construction of countries along the line,they began to explore using PPP mode to invest in infrastructure countries along the Belt and Road.At present,overseas Infrastructure PPPs’ under the background of “the Belt and Road”is still in its initial stage of exploration.Most of the projects are still in the start-up construction stage or just start-up operation stage.No case of successful implementation and handover.Chinese enterprises lack of practical experience and successful cases in implementing PPP projects in the field of overseas infrastructure.Fully identifying and evaluating project risks in the early stage of the project is conducive to the determination of public-private partnership business conditions and the healthy and stable development of the whole life cycle of the project.Firstly,this paper reviews the risk assessment methods and their application.Combined with the characteristics of overseas Infrastructure PPPs’ under the background of “the Belt and Road”,the risk assessment methods were compared.The Set Pair Analysis method is used to evaluate the risk.And the applicability of the Set Pair Analysis method is analyzed.Based on the existing literature,combined with expert interviews,using the hierarchical holographic model(HHM),risk identification is carried out from the four dimensions of stakeholders,scope of influence,project stage and objective management.And a preliminary overseas Infrastructure PPPs’ under the background of “the Belt and Road” risk index system is established.Through the contrast screening and the expert membership survey,the index system with three levels,seven risk sources and 52 risk indicators is finally obtained.The established risk evaluation index system is regarded as the factor set of set pair analysis method,on the basis of which,the probability and influence degree of risk occurrence are divided,the risk level is divided by risk matrix and risk degree function,the risk value and risk level of each risk index are determined,the index weight calculation model is established by group decision characteristic root method,and the risk index risk is established by Ido linkage measurement The relationship function between value and risk level,combined with the weight of risk indicators of each risk source,evaluates the risk level of each risk source in a single level GSPA,and then calculates the project’s relationship value of each risk level in a multi-level GSPA evaluation,so as to establish a good risk evaluation model.Using the established model to evaluate the risk of the deep-water port project in Kyaukpyu special district of Myanmar.The results show: at the level of risk factors,material life risk and international war risk,is at a low risk level;There are seven risk indicators with high risk level: inflation risk,capital availability risk,credit risk,payment mechanism risk,marketpurchasing power risk,stakeholder cooperation risk,contract completion and renegotiation risk;In addition to the above seven indicators,the indicator risk level is medium.At the risk source level,except for the high level of financial risk,the risk level of other risk sources is medium.On the whole,the risk level of the deep-water port project in Kyaukpyu special economic zone is medium.Finally,on the basis of the results of the case risk evaluation and analysis,the paper gives countermeasures and suggestions for seven types of risk sources:political and environmental risks,financial risks,construction risks,operation and transfer risks,relationship risks,legal and policy risks,and force majeure risks.To sum up,this paper establishes a risk assessment model based on Set Pair Analysis from the perspective of investors,and takes the deep water port project in Kyaukpyu SAR of Myanmar as an example to conduct a risk assessment.This article provides investors PPPs’ under the background of “the Belt and Road” to support overseas investment and risk management of infrastructure projects and guidance of practical activities.