Research On The Total Import Of Guangzhou And The Structure Of Commodity In The 40 Years Of Reform And Opening Up

For developing countries,imports are an important channel for the formation of modern productive forces and have an irreplaceable role in enhancing economic strength.China is a country with a vast territory.The economic and trade development levels of different regions are different.Therefore,the economic structure naturally formed by each region may have different effects and influences on the import trade of the region.There are great differences in the economic structure and level of development between different regions,so there are certain differences in import trade.Located in the center of the Pearl River Delta,Guangzhou’s foreign trade not only strengthens the friendly exchanges between China and the people of all countries in the world,but also plays an important role in the economy.In the 40 years of reform and opening up,the total volume of imports in Guangzhou is growing and the structure is constantly changing.Studying the factors affecting the total import volume and the changes in the structure of import trade are of great significance for refining the logical relationship of economics and proposing policy recommendations.This paper mainly studies the total import volume and the structure of imported goods in Guangzhou in the 40 years since the reform and opening up.The first part studies the change of total import volume in Guangzhou,and uses the trend of changes in total import volume under different economic situations,combined with domestic import policies and Guangzhou regional policies to analyze the reasons for import changes.At the same time,OLS regression is used to analyze the influence of major economic factors on the import volume,and the elasticity and importance index of the import volume are obtained.According to the empirical results and data analysis,in 1978-1996,the regional gross domestic product(GDP)to Guangzhou The impact of foreign trade is most significant.In 1997-2016,the main factors affecting the total import volume of Guangzhou were,from large to small,the regional GDP,exchange rate,price index,and tariff.The second part studies the time series of changes in the structure of imported goods in Guangzhou.The products are classified into four categories according to HS code: resource products and agricultural raw materials,capital goods,raw materials and chemicals,and other commodities.Structural trends.It is concluded that the structure of imported goods in Guangzhou has been transformed from the import of raw materials and chemical products to the import of capital goods.From the perspective of the changes in the four categories,the proportion of resource products and agricultural raw materials and capital goods imports has been increasing.The proportion of raw materials and chemicals is declining.