Research On The Causes And Early Warning Of Credit Risk Of City Commercial Banks

China's current economy is in a "three-phase superposition" state,along with the challenges of the "five major tasks".During this process,many regional banks' financial performance have deteriorated due to the deterioration of asset quality,which has exposed credit risks completely.At present,many papers mainly focus on liquidity risk and lack of research on credit risk.Credit risk,as one of the main risks faced by the regional banks,which is more meaningful in the context of economic downturn.Therefore,this paper chooses Bank of Jinzhou as a case,not only to research the causes of its credit risk,but also to use the KMV model to quantify and warning its credit risk,thus enriching the research on the credit risk of regional banks.Before starting the analysis in this paper,the first is to elaborate the analysis framework target on Bank of Jinzhou's credit risk,and based on the framework this paper analyzed macro environment,regional environment,earning pattern of business,governance structure,and internal control.As a result,it was found that Bank of Jinzhou had high business risks,imperfect governance structure,inadequate internal control,and macro factors exacerbated this process.When using the KMV model for quantitative analysis,a dynamic quantitative analysis of Bank of Jinzhou's credit risk from 2016 to 2018 was conducted,and Bank of Jinzhou was compared with three other Northeast regional banks listed in Hong Kong stocks.It was found that the credit risk of Bank of Jinzhou is relatively high.Combining the above analysis and according to the model variables,we have established a logical connection between the two.Finally,this paper give a few suggestions from the standpoints of the regional banks,regulatory authorities and investors.