Research On The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On International Resource Prices

Today,as the trend of economic globalization is accelerating,the economies of all countries are closely connected.Changes in the economic policies of any country will inevitably affect the global market,and prices are a barometer of the market.Any changes in the market will cause price fluctuations.International resources,as an indispensable strategic material in economic development,their price fluctuations will affect national security and sustainable economic and social development.Today,with the frequent occurrence of black swan events such as the “Sino-US Trade War” and“Brexit”,economic policy uncertainties continue to rise,and how uncertainty will impact international resource prices requires further research.First of all,this article theoretically analyzes the impact direction of economic policy uncertainty on international resource prices and discusses the internal mechanism of the impact.On this basis,using the economic policy uncertainty indicators constructed by Baker et al.,which from January 1999 to September 2019,combined with international resource price data in the US Energy Agency and the International Monetary Fund database,using time-varying parameter vectors The Regression(TVP-VAR)model studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on international resource prices.In view of the diversity of international resource markets,the international resource market is divided into energy market,agricultural product market and non-ferrous metal market,and the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the prices of the main products in the three markets is analyzed and the impact differences are compared.At the same time,according to the characteristics and attributes of economic policy uncertainty events,the uncertainty is further divided into economic uncertainty shocks and policy uncertainty shocks,and the impact of the two uncertainties on international resource prices is compared.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)the impact of uncertain economic policy shocks on international resource prices has obvious time-varying characteristics,and the characteristics of different markets in different periods are inconsistent.The impact of economic policy uncertainty on the energymarket is mainly negative in the early stage and positive in the later stage.For the agricultural product market,different products perform inconsistently in different periods.The overall impact of uncertainty on soybeans and corn it showed a positive and negative alternation,and basically had a negative impact on wheat before 2010,and a positive and negative alternation in the later period;in the non-ferrous metal market,the prices of major non-ferrous metal products mainly showed a negative impact in the early stage.In the later period,there was a positive and negative alternating situation.Of the three markets,uncertainty in economic policy has the greatest impact on the energy market.(2)The impact of economic policy uncertainties on international resource prices has been consistent across the number of lag periods.With the increasing number of lag periods,the impact of the shock gradually weakened,indicating that the international resource market can be effectively adjusted to alleviate to a certain extent.The impact of the impact has stabilized the price of international resources.(3)In the overall international resource market,the impact of economic uncertainty on international resource prices is basically negative,the impact of policy uncertainty on different markets in different periods of time,and the impact of economic uncertainty on international resource prices before,during and after the period They are basically the same,but there are differences in shocks before,during,and after policy uncertainty.This is mainly due to the complexity of shocks in policy uncertainty.(4)The impact of economic uncertainty on the energy market is basically negative,while the impact of policy uncertainty on the prices of different energy products is inconsistent at different times.In the agricultural product market,the impact of economic uncertainty is mainly negative,and the policy is not the deterministic shock mainly shows a positive and negative alternating trend.In the non-ferrous metal market,the impact of economic uncertainty and policy uncertainty on the price of gold has been positive in the previous period,confirming the short-term risk aversion effect of gold.The main contribution of this article is to break the traditional price impact mechanism,include uncertainty into the scope of price impact factors,study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on international resource prices from a global perspective,examine the internal impact mechanism,and compare differentinternational resources.Differences in market shocks and analysis of causes have enriched relevant theoretical and empirical research.The research in this paper is of great practical significance to provide directions for future international resource market related policies,to stabilize price fluctuations in the international resource market,and to establish relevant risk aversion mechanisms.