Empirical Analysis Of Interest Rate Uncertainty In Private Finance:Evidence From Wenzhou

In some areas of China,the flexibility and applicability of private finance can better meet the needs of small and micro enterprises' production and development.However,private financial interest rates are relatively high,and the average financing scale is small,accompanied by high volatility,which is an important reason for many financing problems in small and micro enterprises.Therefore,it is necessary to measure the risk of private financial interest rate,measure the uncertainty of interest rate and the deviation of social benefits and optimize the allocation of resources,so as to provide policy support for the government to guide the sustainable development of private financial market and solve the problems of financing difficulty and high cost for small and micro enterprises.In view of this,this paper takes Wenzhou area as an example,based on the data of 113,655 loans from 2016 to 2018,and analyzes the current situation and characteristics of private finance in Wenzhou from multiple aspects in detail.It also makes an empirical study on the interest rate risk,uncertainty and social benefits of Wenzhou private finance.Research indicates:(1)Study the uncertainty of private financial interest rates from three aspects: financing entity,financing method and financing period.For the measure of uncertainty,the method of calculating the uncertainty index in two steps is combined with the optimized moving average method based on smoothness and accuracy and the stochastic wave model for measurement.The research results show that from the perspective of financing entities,microfinance companies have greater uncertainty than direct lending by society.From the perspective of financing methods,the uncertainty of secured loans is greater than that of credit loans and is increasing year by year.From the perspective of the financing period,the short-term and oneyear long-term loans from the one-month period are more uncertain.(2)Analyze the social performance of private finance from the aspects of average financing scale and average financing interest rate,and find that the social benefits of direct social lending are higher than that of microfinance companies,because microfinance companies tend to be economically beneficial.Pay attention to social benefits.Then use the conditional kernel density function to empirically analyze the changes in the average financing scale and average financing interest rate under different financing terms.Finally,according to the distribution under different financing terms,optimize the allocation of financing period and control the risk avoidance uncertainty.After the time limit adjustment,not only the financing interest rate is lowered,the financing scale is increased,but also the interest rate uncertainty is lowered.(3)Finally,in the prevention and control of interest rate risk and avoidance of uncertainty,the government should improve the insurance mechanism with private finance;improve the credit awareness and contract spirit of enterprises and individuals;and strengthen the timeliness and effectiveness of supervision.To improve the social benefits of private finance,the government should increase non-profit inclusive financial institutions,increase capital investment;strengthen government cooperation with banks,innovate financial services,and expand credit support coverage.