The Impact Of Household Debt Changes On Consumer Expenditure

At present,China’s domestic and international economic environment is unprecedentedly severe.It is undoubtedly an important policy measure to maintain sustained and steady economic development and further strengthen the leading role of domestic demand in the national economy.This can be seen in the 2019 Central Economic Work Conference.However,in the case that the size of China’s resident debt is already very large(47.9 trillion yuan by the end of 2018),the promotion of consumption must take into account the constraints and fluctuations of household debt.Therefore,studying the impact of changes in debt size on consumption has important practical value.The theoretical analysis of this paper shows that the influence of household debt changes on its consumption expenditure may exist at the same time through the two paths of wealth effect and extrusion effect.Because of its opposite direction,it cannot theoretically give the total.The direction of influence.To this end,this paper uses CFPS data,through the panel OLS,FGLS,GMM and other regression methods from the total consumption expenditure,urban and rural structure,debt type,household consumption structure and other aspects of the empirical analysis.The results show that: Firstly,the impact of the current household debt changes on household consumption expenditures on the consumptive effect is greater than the crowding out effect.Therefore,the latter should be paid more attention to between preventing risks and promoting consumption.Secondly,the analysis of the differences in the main consumption expenditures between urban and rural areas shows that rural households are more sensitive to the impact of household debt on their consumption than urban households.Thirdly,from the perspective of consumption structure and level,whether in rural or urban areas,the impact of household debt on development-oriented consumption is greater than the impact on survival consumption,which is related to the characteristics of the consumption type.Finally,based on the gap between urban and rural areas,the debt types are further subdivided to explore possible causes.It is found that the change of urban housing loans has a negative effect on household consumption,and other changes in non-real-loan liabilities have positively contributed to household consumption.The role of different types of consumption and types of debt can boost consumption growth and economic growth.The enlightenment of the above research conclusions is: First,both consumptionpromotion and risk prevention are equally important.While carrying out debt risk management,it promotes consumption growth with moderate growth of household debt.Second,it establishes a differentiated policy that adapts to urban-rural differences.Actively guide credit to support underdeveloped regions and develop rural credit markets.We will promote the reform of the income distribution system,regulate the income of urban residents,increase the income of rural residents,and narrow the regional development gap.Third,we will optimize the family debt structure and promote the transformation and upgrading of the consumption structure for different types of debt and consumption.