Research On Operating Risk Early Warning Simulation Of Listed Companies In Information Technology

The information technology industry is a strategic emerging industry of the State Council.It is the core industry in the era of knowledge economy,and it also has the attributes of “high risk,high return,high growth”.In the survival and development of listed companies in the information technology industry,it is inevitable that there will be operational risks arising from certain potential threats that may cause problems in one part of the business process or in one aspect.However,the operating risks of listed companies in the information technology industry have stage characteristics,and the outbreak of the business crisis is not “one-stop”.The factors that induce the risk of the listed companies in the information technology industry are more complicated.Then,how to use scientific operating risk early warning tools to identify operational risk impact factors,to monitor business risks in real time,and to effectively prevent operational risks has become an urgent problem for academic and practical circles.Based on risk warning theory and cash flow theory,this thesis identifies the operational risk factors and builds a business risk early warning research framework system of “operational risk early warning indicator selection?operation risk early warning threshold?operational risk early warning simulation model?operational risk prevention path design”.From the perspective of cash flow,the thesis researches on the operational risk warning.This thesis is divided into five parts to elaborate:(1)Analysis of operational risk warning theory.Combining the operational risk characteristics of listed companies in the information technology industry,we define operational risks and identify operational risk factors from the perspective of cash flow.(2)Selection of operational risk warning indicators.The operational risk early warning indicators are designed from the perspectives of operating risk,cash flow risk and growth risk.The operational risk early warning indicators are selected through “indicator pretreatment ? normality test ? difference test”.(3)Using the principal component analysis method to construct a comprehensive indicator of operational risk early warning.The thesis defines the early warning threshold measurement process,and designs the operational risk early warning alert determination mode.(4)Constructing an operational risk early warning simulation model for listed companies in the information technology industry.The operational risk early warning simulation process is designed,and the modeling purpose and system boundary are determined.By analyzing the structural risk early warning system,it can be constructed to lay the foundation for the model application.(5)Model application.Taking the listed companies in the information technology industry from 2010 to 2017 as the research object,ST listed companies and their listed companies are taken as research samples.Firstly,the comprehensive indicators of early warning of operational risks and early warning thresholds are measured;then the basis of the validity test of the model is adopted.In the above,the simulation operation analysis of the operational risk in the next five years will be carried out,and the operational risk warning level will be located in order to prevent the risk before the operating risk breaks out.Finally,the model will be analyzed and the control path of operating l risk will be designed according to the cause of the operating risk.The breakthroughs of the thesis are as follows:(1)In the selection of indicators,the cash flow reflects the superiority of the listed company's operating capacity,and designs the cash flow-based operational risk early warning indicator to overcome the shortcomings of traditional financial indicators ignoring cash flow.(2)In terms of research methods,this thesis combines principal component analysis method and system dynamics method to use Vensim software to predict the operational risk status of listed companies in the information technology industry in the future.Before the outbreak of operational risks,the possibility of risk outbreaks is determined.The effect of prior warning is achieved,and the purpose of real-time early warning of the listed company's operating risks is achieved.