Empirical Research On The Dual Impact Of Inclusive Financial Policy On Virtual Economy And Real Economy

Since the 1970 s,both the real economy and the virtual economy have gradually transcended national borders,and their scale has become larger and larger.Contacts with other countries and even regions have become closer and closer,and credit plays an important role.In general,virtual The development of the economy and the real economy is one.With the emergence of the concept of the global village,the relationship between the two is deepening,and the ecosystem of interaction between them is more diverse and full of complexity.The role of the virtual economy in the real economy is unknown.In general,it is either developing in a favorable way or developing in an unfavorable aspect.In one respect,promoting the development of a virtual economy can redistribute social resources.It is smoother,more effective,and reduces systemic risks.On the other hand,it can also cause structural imbalances between money supply and demand,leading to asset price bubbles(ie,the phenomenon that prices deviate from the value of assets),which may cause Economic crisis,such as the subprime crisis in 2008.As a China actively participating in globalization,international capital will enter China's capital market in various forms from different channels.If it is mishandled,it may cause the virtual economy to over-develop itself,in the system of “financial assets to financial assets”.The middle cycle,which runs counter to the normal development track,has a deeper and deeper impact on the real economy,and this effect is likely to be unfavorable.Taking this as an opportunity,this paper based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2017,the national and regional fixed effect regression,using Moran's I index to test the spatial autocorrelation of inclusive finance;establishing a spatial Dubin model(SDM)Analyze the impact of the implementation of inclusive financial policies on China's “virtual deviation”.In this paper,the degree of “virtual reality divergence” is expressed by the scale of virtual economy as the scale of real economy,and in order to construct regional inclusive financial indicator system,considering social development,generalized financial supply and general financial demand,factor analysis is used.Law,and thus,based on the position of inclusive finance,explores the impact on the virtual economy and the real economy.In addition,the sum of the total transaction volume of the securities market and the sales of commercial housing is taken as a logarithm to represent the virtual economy,and the industrial added value is used to represent the real economy,and the regression is used as the other two explanatory variables to illustrate the inclusive finance.Whether the implementation of the policy has a dual impact on the real economy and the virtual economy.The main conclusions are summarized as follows: First,for a long period of time,the implementation of inclusive financial policies can increase the real and effective demand of the real economy market by reducing the false prosperity and bubble of the virtual economy,thus making the virtual and real economy gradually In balance,but inclusive finance is also a kind of virtual economy.Once it is over-developed,it will increase the risk of economic dislocation.Second,inclusive finance has spatial heterogeneity,according to China's geographical complexity and cultural diversity.Such characteristics can be found that the development of the East,Central and West regions is very uneven,and the level of financial development is also significantly different for regional heterogeneity.Third,the implementation of inclusive financial policies has spatial agglomeration characteristics,and inter-regional inclusive financial implementation will produce The positive spatial spillover effect,that is,to some extent,has an inhibitory effect on the divergence between the province and the neighboring provinces.Fourth,the current stage of the inclusive financial policy implementation has a spatial agglomeration effect,whether it is Pratt & Whitney Cities with high levels of financial development,as well as cities with low levels of inclusive financial development,tend to gather.