Research On Cross-border Mergers And Acquisitions Performance Valuation And Prediction Of Chinese Internet Enterprise

In the past 20 years,Chinese Internet companies have completed the development process from small to large.In recent years,Chinese Internet market has gradually saturated and some companies began to explore the international market.A large number of cross-border mergers and acquisitions(M&A)have been carried out by companies represented by Tencent and Alibaba.How to choose cross-border M&A targets and whether the post-merger business performance can be improved has become an important issue that needs to be resolved.Based on the existing theory of cross-border M&A performance,this thesis conducts empirical research on 53 M&A events initiated by Chinese Internet listed companies.After analyzing the characteristics of Internet companies to selected relevant financial indicators,this thesis establishes an evaluation model of M&A performance by factor analysis to calculated the performance changes of 53 M&A events from the year of M&A to the second year after M&A.Then the thesis analyzes eight factors that may affect M&A performance: cross-border M&A experience,whether it is listed overseas,growth of enterprises before M&A,company size at the time of M&A,relative size of M&A transactions,equity concentration,cultural differences,the level of economic development of the host country.The calculated M&A performance is taken as the output value of BP neural network combined with the eight factors affecting the M&A performance to construct a M&A performance prediction model based on BP neural network.The prediction effect of this model is good and the prediction error is within 5%.Finally,this article analyzes the merger case of Alibaba's acquisition of Lazada,and the results show that Alibaba's performance has declined within two years after the acquisition.The empirical results show that from the year of the merger to the second year after the merger,the average performance of the sample companies has declined year by year,indicating that the performance of the sample companies after the merger is worse than before the merger;More than half of the companies have not achieved performance gains from cross-border mergers and acquisitions,especially mid-to-long term performance;Finally,the standard deviation of changes in corporate performance has increased year by year,indicating that some companies have integrated the resources of the merged and acquired companies because of their strong management capabilities,and have formed a larger capacity to improve their performance with companies with poor capabilities gap.In addition,the BP neural network fits well the nonlinear relationship between cross-border M&A performance and related influencing factors,and achieves a more accurate prediction of the cross-border M&A performance of Internet companies.The enterprise can judge whether the merger can improve the performance and provide the basis for the selection of the target enterprise by the forecasting model.