Research On Credit Default Risk Of Huaxia Bank

In recent years,the slowdown of China's economic growth has been accompanied by continuous turbulence in the macroeconomic environment,which has exerted great pressure on the operation and development of both the real market and the financial market in China.As the most important subject in China's financial market,commercial banks play a particularly important role in conducting the implementation of the national monetary policy and maintaining the steady development of China's economic market.However,the data show that the non-performing loan rate of commercial banks has increased year by year in recent years,such as Baoshang Bank,Jinzhou Bank and other commercial banks have frequent thunderstorms,and the credit risk of commercial banks is the focus that we have to pay attention to.This paper chooses Huaxia Bank,one of the joint-stock banks in China,as the research object,and sorts out and summarizes the past researches on credit risk measurement methods and influencing factors of commercial banks by domestic and foreign scholars.Based on information asymmetry theory and asset pricing theory.Based on the analysis of Huaxia Bank's credit status and credit risk management status,it is found that the credit risk management process is not perfect and the relevant employees are not strong in risk management and control.According to these problems,we will enter into the empirical research on credit risk measurement and influencing factors of Huaxia Bank.In the empirical analysis of Huaxia Bank's credit risk measurement,this paper takes Huaxia Bank as the main body,and uses the credit default distance to represent the bank's credit default.At the same time,in order to make the results more explanatory,it selects 6 other banks from state-owned banks,jointstock banks and city commercial banks as comparative samples for comparative analysis.Taking the data of 24 cycles spanning 12 years from the second half of 2007 to the first half of 2019 as sample data,and using KMV model to study the default distance of each bank,it is found that Huaxia Bank's credit risk is at a medium to high level among the selected 7 bank samples,which requires attention to its credit risk.Then,it analyzes the influencing factors of Huaxia Bank's credit risk,and uses VAR model to select the data of Huaxia Bank covering 12 years and 23 cycles from 2008 to the first half of 2019.At the same time,we select four variables from macro and micro to study the impact of these variables on Huaxia Bank's credit risk: CAR,BLR,GDP growth and M2 growth.The results show that the non-performing loan ratio(BLR)of Huaxia Bank and China's M2 growth rate have the greatest impact on Huaxia Bank's citation risk,while China's GDP growth rate has the least impact on Huaxia Bank's credit risk.Finally,according to the results of empirical analysis,some suggestions are put forward to Huaxia Bank,such as improving the credit management system of Huaxia Bank and increasing the capital adequacy ratio of Huaxia Bank,so as to help Huaxia Bank to better manage risks in the future.