Research On Borrowers' Influential Factors Of The Credit Risk In Peer-to-Peer Lending

Finance is the core of the contemporary economic system.As the core of modern finance,risk management is of great significance to the stable development of finance.With the rapid development of Internet technology,the importance and the participation depth of Internet finance in the modern financial field is increasing.In the background of the new normal of China's economy of the "three-stage superposition" of the economic growth shift period,the structural adjustment period,and the previous policy digestion period,due to the high credit risk,low profit margins of the small and medium-sized enterprises(SEMs),and stricter risk management by commercial banks,the "Macmillan Gap" of SMEs has been continuously expanded,and the difficulty of financing through the formal financial market has become prominent.As an important part of private lending,Peer-to-Peer Internet lending not only relaxed the financing constrains for small and medium-sized enterprises to a certain extent,but also realizes the complementary circulation of funds and expands the channel of funds between finance and the real economy.At the same time,it also increased the turnover cycle and flow rate of private capital,and increased market activity.However,the characteristics of Internet finance with its irregularity and high volatility have determined that it is easy to generate large-scale toxic assets due to the debt chain breakage,and gradually develop from individual risks to systemic financial risks.Among the many individual risks,the borrower is the core subject of the Peer-to-Peer market,and its credit risk is the core factor of online lending risk.On this basis,this paper takes the borrower's credit risk influencing factors as the starting point and empirically analyzes the impact of each factor on the borrower's credit risk.This paper first reviews the credit risk related research of borrowers.Based on the theoretical analysis of borrower defaults,this paper studies the impact of borrower credit risks from three aspects: macro factors,platform factors,and borrower's own factors.Through the analysis of the borrower's credit risk status,it is found that online lending is mainly concentrated on the increasing amount of overdue amounts,the proportion of bad debts rising,and the long-term overdue proportion rising.Second,in order to study the factors affecting the borrower's credit risk,combined with the data captured on the online loan platform,we select 12 indicatorsfor the construction of the indicator system from the three dimensions of the borrower's personal information,historical borrowing information,and transaction information.Based on statistical analysis,an empirical analysis was performed using Logit model.The empirical results show that the selected indicators have a certain effect on the borrower's default risk.However,relative to the indicators related to the implementation of borrowings,the correlation between the borrower's personal information indicators and risks is low.In addition,interest rate,loan term,loan size,monthly repayment amount,and number of successful bids are positively related to credit risk.Borrower occupation,historical borrowing history,loan purpose,credit rating,and number of bids are negatively related to credit risk.By comparing the prediction results of the model with the actual data of the platform,it is found that the correct prediction rate of this prediction model reaches more than 80%,which can play the functions of prediction and early warning.Finally,to lower the default risk from the borrower,this paper propose four suggestions: perfecting the credit information system,strengthening the social restriction of dishonesty,strengthening technological innovation to enhance credit risk assessment ability,and improving the requirements for the borrower's third-party guarantee or mortgage.