Research On The Expectation Mechanism And Characteristics Of RMB Exchange Rate In The Reform Of Foreign Exchange System

Currency exchange rate is an important indicator that affects a country’s economic development and involves all aspects of the national economy.As the comprehensive strength of China’s economy is increasing,the process of RMB internationalization continues to deepen,and the world position of the RMB is gradually improving.The importance of the RMB exchange rate becomes more apparent.Therefore,studying the RMB exchange rate expectation mechanism is of great significance for preventing and controlling exchange rate risks,optimizing resource allocation,maintaining financial stability,enriching the theory of the RMB expectation mechanism,and promoting currency system reform and RMB internationalization.In addition,the RMB exchange rate has long been considered to be non-market-oriented,and the exchange rate expectation theory including the CF model is based on the market-based exchange rate research theory.Drawing relevant conclusions and discovering related laws proves from one side that the marketization degree of the RMB exchange rate is gradually increasing,and the effect of China’s currency reform is beginning to show,which is also one of the meanings.By the expansion of the concept of expectation function,this article discusses the connotation of the exchange rate expectations,forms and characteristics,and tests the RMB exchange rate expectations.The empirical results which based on the proxy variables(NDF)and the investigation data on the exchange rate shows that the direct exchange rate of RMB exchange rate against the dollar is expected to be explained by fundamental factors and market factors;The expected effect is negatively correlated with the expected duration(time interval).Extrapolation type expected the applicability of the form is the result of the RMB exchange rate regime change certain cycle,based on state space model of the dynamic analysis shows that with the improvement of marketization of RMB exchange rate,the fundamentals of explanatory power to reduce exchange rate expectations.In addition,based on the concept of expected function,the expected nature,expected form and expected features can be incorporated into a unified analytical framework to facilitate the discussion of this issue.