| By studying the emotional information expressed by investors in the stock bar platform,this paper explores whether investor sentiment will cause fluctuations in the current or short-term stock price in the future,and further explores whether rational managers will do more to maintain high stock price when irrational investors prefer certain investment projects and are willing to pay a higher premium for large-scale investment companies.The large-scale investment expansion verifies that the investor sentiment indirectly influences the innovation investment and innovation output of the enterprise through a certain transmission way,and provides some reference significance for the rational R&D investment of the enterprise managers,the optimization of investment decision-making,and the promotion of the healthy and sound development of the stock market.This paper selects the data of stocks which are Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index components from December 1st,2018 to November 30 th,2019 to conduct empirical research on two aspects: On the one hand,it explores how investor sentiment affects stock market performance,that is,it studies the relationship between investor sentiment and stock price and trading volume;On the other hand,it explains how the cognitive bias of corporate managers due to investor sentiment on the performance of the stock market will affect corporate R&D investment.Firstly,this paper uses Python to write a crawler program,to crawl the stock evaluation text of Dongfang fortune net bar,which is the most visited and influential stock online forum in China’s stock market,and quantifies the text to identify the emotional information,and constructs the investor sentiment index by using antweiler and Frank’s(2004)method.Finally,316 A-share listed companies that meet the requirements were obtained,with a total of 52 trading weeks,5407419 posts and 4203258 effective comments with emotional tendencies.In the study of the effect of investor sentiment on the stock market,this paper uses the vector auto regression model to test the dynamic relationship between investor sentiment and individual stock return rate,volume of trading,and the timely lag relationship.After the stability test and the selection of the optimal lag period,this paper uses the Granger causality test to test the investor’s attention to enterprise innovation The interaction between investor sentiment and stock market returns and trading volume is further analyzed.Finally,the pulse response function is used to analyze the interaction time and weakness time.The empirical results show that the stock return and trading volume are Granger reasons for the change of investor sentiment,that is,the performance of the stock market can have an impact on investor sentiment,and the change of investor’s bullish and bearish sentiment can also have an effect on the performance of the stock market.In the study of the impact of investor sentiment on enterprise innovation,both rational and irrational managers will make further investment decisions because of the fluctuation of the company’s stock price.If the investor’s bullish or bearish mood affects the short-term stock price fluctuation in the future,the innovation and R&D investment decision made by the enterprise managers because of overconfidence or catering psychology can be regarded as the "Empathy" between the enterprise managers and the Internet investors to some extent,or the investor’s mood "shapes" the enterprise managers’ mood.Therefore,this paper uses OLS return to test whether investor sentiment can indirectly affect enterprise managers’ sentiment and further affect enterprise innovation by influencing future stock market performance.The empirical results show that the explanatory power of the model is stronger after adding the manager confidence index,and the positive regression coefficient can draw a conclusion that the change of investor sentiment can positively affect the innovation R&D and output of enterprises through the intermediary effect of manager overconfidence.Then,we use the alternative variable method to test the robustness,and use the turnover rate of individual stocks as the measure of investor sentiment to regress.Using the measure of investor sentiment to change will not change the relationship between its essence and innovation,and the result is still stable.At last,the author thinks about the current situation of China’s stock market at the same time of getting the conclusion,and puts forward corresponding suggestions to small and medium-sized investors,listed companies,public opinion regulatory departments and market regulators. |
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