| Real estate investment trust funds(REITs),as a real estate investment tool for collective fund schemes,have been implemented in more than 30 countries and regions so far.REITs has the advantage that it can effectively expand the financing channels of real estate enterprises,revitalize existing assets,and thereby improve the liquidity of assets.This kind of products could provide an investment channel with stable returns and high security for investors.Since the discontinuation of allocatiing houses in kind in 1998,Chinese real estate marketization rate has continued to increase,real estate prices have been rising,and the role of the real estate industry in the promotion of Chinese economy has gradually become irreplaceable.Commercial real estate investment has become the current new investment direction,and REITs has been the new investment method in the general trend of development.But Chinese policy makers worry REITs in our market may exacerbate housing price volatility and affect market stability.Alternatively,REITs have a history of more than ten years in Hong Kong,but they have not caused a housing price bubble,REITs in HK have a positive effect on housing price stabilization.Based on the market data of REITs in Hong Kong from 2006 to 2019,this article explores the mechanism of REITs on house price stability by establishing SVAR and VAR models,and provides feasible policy recommendations for the introduction of REITs in China.The main research ideas of this paper are as follows: expounding the necessity of studying the relationship between REITs and commercial real esta te prices through theoretical review of literature,and discussing the internal logic of REITs' stabilizing effect on commercial real estate.The empirical study is divided into two parts.First,constructing SVAR model to study the relationship between th e capitalization rate of commercial property in Hong Kong,the price of commercial real estate,the interest rate of 10-year government bonds and the financing ratio of REITs.Second,analyzing the long-term effects of commercial property price index and investment cash flow of REITs,and discuss the adjustment process of REITs on commercial real estate prices comprehensively.The study found that the significant impact of Hong Kong commercial property capitalization rate on REITs' financing ratio exists in both the long-term and the short-term,and shows a long-term positive correlation.Hong Kong's commercial property prices and the 10-year benchmark interest rate have little effect on REITs' financing scale.Hong Kong REITs' investment cash flow and commercial property price index have a positive equilibrium relationship in the long run.When the property yield rate is high,the scale of REITs financing is large.In the long run,the conversion rate of market participants' behavior from financing to investing is high,that is,the product investment scale is large,the investment cash flow increases,and the property price index increases accordingly.When the property rent level keep unchanged,the increase of capitalization rate incentivizes investors to sell properties,which in turn causes house prices to fall.Repeatedly,with the help of REITs,real estate market could adjust house prices indirectly to achieve a stable balance and to avoid the real estate market turmoil caused by occurrence of large economic bubbles.In the long run,the development of REITs products in China has a positive effect on stabilizing housing prices.REITs are able to increase the variety of financial investment products,deleverage,and reduce systemic financial risks,which can change the development model of Chinese commercial real estate.The mechanism of real estate investment trust funds is in line with market development needs,and can be used as the focus of real estate financial products in the future,perfecting the long-term development path according to national conditions. |
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