Research On Influencing Factors Of RMB Anchor Effect In "One Belt And One Road" Co-built Countries

With President Xi Jinping’s “Belt and Road” initiative in 2013,China ’s trade with other countries in the world has deepened,which has a profound impact on world trade and regional political patterns.China will also play a pivotal role in the new political and economic structure of the world.At the same time as China’s right to speak in the world has increased,the RMB has also played an important role on the international stage.The function of RMB in cross-border settlement and savings in international trade has become increasingly prominent.The two outbreaks of the global financial crisis have made every country in the world,especially the less developed countries,aware of the shortcomings of focusing only on the US dollar as the anchor currency for trade standards.Countries need to seek new anchor currencies for stable trade.At present,the currencies of developed countries,such as the US dollar,euro,pound sterling,and yen,are still widely accepted around the world.If the renminbi is to become the world’s main anchor currency in the new era,it still needs long-term development.This paper first makes changes on the basis of Frankel & Wei model,using state space model to study the time-varying parameters of the 112 “Belt and Road”co-constructed countries against the US dollar,euro,pound sterling,yen and renminbi,measuring from August 2005 to October 2019 Under four different stages,the RMB will build the national currency “anchor” effect on the “Belt and Road”.Secondly,based on the measurement results,further study the influencing factors that affect the RMB’s "anchor" effect.The panel analysis was carried out by selecting 50 “Belt and Road” co-constructing countries with significant results from 2005 to 2018.This panel data uses a variable-intercept fixed-effect panel model to divide 50 countries into four regions: Asia,Europe,America,Africa,and Oceania by intercontinentalanalysis.the study.The results show that from the perspective of the measurement of the currency’s“anchor” effect,the US dollar ’s currency ’s “anchor” effect in the “Belt and Road”co-construction countries is still strong and still difficult to replace;affected by events such as the UK ’s “Brexit”,the euro and the British pound ’s The currency “anchor”effect in the “One Road” co-construction countries has declined,and the pound has been at a low level.The yen ’s “anchor” effect in the “One Belt One Road”co-construction countries has fallen rapidly,and it is the lowest in the crisis stage.High,the situation has not improved significantly after the crisis;the currency“anchor” effect of the RMB in the “Belt and Road” co-constructed countries has significantly increased since 2015,and the increase is large,but it is easily affected by the international economic situation and emergencies.Judging from the influencing factors of the currency "anchor" effect,the differences in economic growth rates,interest rate differences between the "Belt and Road" co-constructed countries and China,the degree of China’s trade pressure on the "Belt and Road" co-constructed countries,and the deepening of the virtual variable exchange rate reform It has a significant impact on the renminbi’s "anchor" effect in the "Belt and Road" co-constructed country.The domestic and international economic situations faced by each region are different,and the leading factors that affect the RMB’s "anchor" effect are also different.The synchronicity of the economic cycle between China and the“Belt and Road” co-constructed nations and the degree of China ’s trade pressure on the “Belt and Road” co-constructed nations are the most important factors in promoting the “anchor” effect of RMB regional currencies.In addition,the degree of China’s trade pressure on the “Belt and Road” co-constructed countries has a certain time-lag effect on the “anchor” effect of the RMB regional currency.Taken together,the RMB ’s “anchor” effect in the “Belt and Road” co-construction of national currencies has increased significantly,but it is still greatly affected by international factors.In the face of this situation,China must increase its efforts to further increase the frequency of the occurrence of the renminbi within the “Belt and Road” co-construction countries,explore the situation of currency cooperationbetween continents;further deepen and effectively improve the “Belt and Road”co-construction national currencies The depth and breadth of financial cooperation;enhancing China’s position in international finance and enhancing China’s leading image in major global economic issues.