Research On The Synergic Effect Between Agriculture Insurance And Agriculture Credit Of Based On EEMD Analysis

The healthy development of the rural financial market is of great significance for solving the problems of agriculture,rural areas and farmers,developing the rural economy and improving the living standard of farmers.However,due to the uncertainty of agricultural production,the information asymmetry between farmers and financial institutions,but the peasant household lacks the ideal collateral,the financial institution often cannot control the credit risk effectively,so the problem of "difficult loan" for farmers is more serious.The rural revitalization strategy puts forward to give priority to agriculture and rural areas as financial services,ensure the input of financial funds,promote balanced development between urban and rural areas,so as to improve rural construction.As important parts of rural finance,bank-insurance cooperation is one of the innovative ways to develop rural finance,which has attracted extensive attention from the academic circle.In reality,is there a cooperative development relationship between agricultural insurance and agricultural loan? How and what is the level of synergetic development between the two? The study of these problems is of positive significance to the healthy development of rural finance in China.The study takes the collaborative development effect of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit as the main content,based on the relevant economic data of Shandong province,uses theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to research.Firstly,the existing literature was sorted out,and the relevant concepts and theoretical basis of the research were determined.Secondly,this paper analyzes the development status of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit in rural financial institutions in Shandong province from the aspects of development course,scale and supply subjects,and discusses the existing problems in the current development process of both.Again,according to the coordinated development of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit theory hypothesis,uses the EEMD method to decompose the data related to agricultural insurance and agricultural credit in Shandong province from 1982 to 2018.The internal fluctuation mechanism of the two was analyzed from the perspective of structural component,and construct the VAR model to study the synergistic effect at the micro level.Finally,the policy Suggestions are put forward.The study combines time-domain analysis and frequency-domain analysis,based on the classical analysis framework,and integrates the internal fluctuation and interaction mechanism of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit into an overall framework.Based on the perspective of internal structure,this study analyzes the internal fluctuation characteristics and synergistic development effect of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit and the study is of great significance to better play the role of rural financial service system in supporting agriculture in Shandong province and to solve the agriculture,rural areas and farmer problems.In the meantime,it has certain reference significance for the implementation of the national rural bank insurance cooperation.Finding include:(1)The inherent fluctuation characteristics of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit in Shandong province are synergistic,and the development trend of the two is basically the same in different periods.The intrinsic wave characteristics of the two showed a positive correlation.As the frequency of the decomposed sequence changed from high to low,the correlation degree of the intrinsic wave of the two became more and more significant,and the positive correlation degree with the original sequence also became more and more significant.(2)The fluctuation components of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit include fluctuation item and trend items.They respectively reflect the development trend of the two in different periods.Agricultural insurance and agricultural credit in Shandong province fluctuate frequently in the short term under the influence of the supply and demand change and other factors.The fluctuation trend in the medium and long term is changed under the influence of relevant policies,and the overall trend is stable and rising.The image shows a certain degree of u-shaped features,and the upward trend of the two will continue to strengthen in the future.(3)There is an internal interactive mechanism of mutual promotion and coordinated development between agricultural insurance and agricultural loan in Shandong province,but the water of coordinated development between the two is relatively low.There is a significant causal relationship between the high-frequency components,which indicates that the two components influence each other in short-term fluctuations.The low-frequency component has an asymmetric conduction relationship,which indicates that the synergetic effect between the two is not significant in the medium and long term,and the depth of cooperation does not reach the theoretical expectation.Finally,based on the variance decomposition method,it is found that the cooperation between the two parties has a growing trend,and agricultural credit has a certain impact on the development of agricultural insurance,but agricultural insurance has a small impact on the development of agricultural credit.Based on the above research conclusions,in order to carry out the in-depth coordinated development of agricultural insurance and agricultural loan of Shandong province,the following Suggestions are put forward:(1)Expand the demand for agricultural insurance,raise the level of insurance coverage,enhance the role of insurance in promoting the development of credit.(2)Improve the information sharing mechanism for bank-insurance interactions,expand the information transparency between insurance and credit institutions,and enhance the level of coordinated development.(3)Improve the legal and regulatory system for bank-insurance interactions,create a favorable legal environment,give full play to the guiding role of laws and policies,and effectively guide the healthy and long-term development of bank-insurance interactions.