Study On Risk Of Beijing Enterprises Outward Foreign Direct Investment To The Countries Along "The Belt And Road" Area

"The Belt and Road" construction is of great significance to accelerate the integration of Chinese enterprises into economic globalization.Since the "the Belt and Road" initiative was proposed,the investment of China’s enterprises to the countries along the line has been expanding year by year.As the capital,Beijing is the leader of the "the Belt and Road" construction.After this initiative was launched,Beijing has been playing the leading role in the strategic position of the capital city and carrying out all aspects of the “the Belt and Road” construction,implementing policies and encouraging enterprises to go out.More and more enterprises have joined the team of“the Belt and Road” construction.Countries along “the Belt and Road” has perplexing risk characteristics.Many of them are high-risk zones,which greatly increase the uncertainty of overseas direct investment and bring losses to enterprises.Therefore,Enterprises of Beijing should focus on preventing the risks and challenges that will arise,and establishing a scientific risk prevention mechanism to participate in the “the Belt and Road” construction in a long-term and effective manner.Firstly,we have carted the current of OFDI of Beijing enterprises to the country along “the Belt and Road”.Then,we have identified the OFDI risk of Beijing enterprises along the “the Belt and Road”.Based on this,a risk index system and an evaluation model are constructed.The Principal Component Analysis and Entropy Method are used to comprehensively evaluate Beijing enterprises “the Belt and Road”.According to the Clustering Analysis,the risk classification of sample countries and the importance of risk factors are obtained,which verify the reliability of the evaluation results.Then,based on the support vector regression(SVR),an OFDI risk early-warning model is constructed to predict the investment risk of the sample countries.Then,risk factors are identified by combining the risk cases of OFDI of Beijing enterprises along the “the Belt and Road”.Based on this,a risk index system and an evaluation model are constructed.The principal component analysis andentropy method are used to comprehensively evaluate the OFDI risk of Beijing enterprises along “the Belt and Road”.Then,based on the support vector regression(SVR),an OFDI risk early-warning model is constructed to predict the investment risk of the sample countries.The results are as follows: Firstly,the OFDI risk of Beijing enterprises along “the Belt and Road” mainly comes from the risk factors brought by the investment environment of the host country,the policy environment of the home country and the risk factors brought by the enterprise level.These risks are also shown as three types of risk,political risk,economic risk and social cultural risk.Secondly,The result of the sub risk scores by principal component analysis shows that the risk factor of host country is the main source of Beijing enterprises OFDI in the countries along “the Belt and Road”.The main risk factors of political risk,economic risk and social and cultural risk are political environment,economic freedom and the level of rule of law.Thirdly,The results of measuring the sub risk weight by entropy method show that social and cultural risks are the most important risk types of Beijing enterprises OFDI along “the Belt and Road”.Fourthly,The results of OFDI comprehensive risk assessment shows that the higher the income level,the lower the risk of OFDI from the perspective of the host country’s income level.Regionally,the countries in Southeast Asia and central and Eastern Europe have lower OFDI risk and better investment environment;The risk of OFDI in Central Asia and South Asia is relatively high,and the risk distribution of OFDI in Southeast Asia and West Asia is polarized.Fifthly,the overall OFDI risk of the sample countries showed a trend of improvement since “the Belt and Road” initiative was launched in 2013,especially in countries with high risk in Central Asia,South Asia,Western Asia and low income countries.Sixthly,the early warning results of SVR model show that most of most of the countries without warning are the countries with higher direct investment flows from Beijing enterprises,such as Singapore and central and Eastern European countries,most of the countries with high alarm are low-income countries,and the risks of Southeast Asian countries are polarized.Finally,OFDI risk prevention strategy for Beijing enterprises in the countries along “the Belt and Road” is put forward based on the above analysis.