Research On Financial Risk Evaluation And Early Warning Of Listed Real Estate Companies

Since the 1990s,the rapid development of the real estate industry has played a vital role in the growth of my country's national economy,but financial risk management is still a problem that real estate companies cannot ignore.Real estate enterprises are capital-intensive enterprises,which have large production costs,high debt levels,and complicated market environment.Therefore,real estate enterprises have high and risky financial risks.For the soft landing of the national economy and the healthy development of the real estate industry,the continuous introduction of national macro-control policies has caused recent real estate companies to have more or less problems,such as:the growth rate of real estate investment has declined year-on-year,inventory has continued to increase,and sales have fallen sharply And the decrease in land transfer income,these problems have increased the financial risks of real estate companies at this stage.Based on the above problems,under the special industry nature of the real estate industry and the background of my country's era,the research on the financial risks and early warning of real estate companies is particularly important.Under the above research background,this paper summarizes the relevant research at home and abroad,based on the analysis of the development of the real estate industry,selects the influencing factors of internal financial indicators,from debt solvency,operating ability,profitability,cash flow ability and development ability The composition and causes of financial risks of real estate companies are analyzed to provide a basis for the selection of indicators in this paper.This article selects the A-share listed companies in the real estate industry in Shanghai and Shenzhen,selects the financial data of 2013-2018,excludes the companies with incomplete financial indicators,and finally retains the financial data of 30 companies as the sample companies for this study,and obtains 90 Group of sample data,select 20 relevant financial indicators for testing,and finally obtain 11 significant impact indicators and obtain expressions through principal component analysis,establish a Logistic early warning model based on the above factor analysis,and perform fit test and model test on it.Apply the model.Finally,the following conclusions are drawn:the company's operating capacity indicators and profitability indicators are important indicators that affect the company's financial risk;the closer the financial risk early warning model is to the year of special treatment,the better the model is,and the accuracy of the model's early warning of ST companies is higher than that of non-financial companies.ST Company's early warning accuracy rate is more sensitive to the company's financial risk;it has put forward relevant suggestions for the financial risk control of listed real estate companies based on the indicators of profitability and operating ability.This article has a certain guiding role in the financial risk assessment and early warning of listed real estate companies.