Research On Influencing Factors Of Changes In Chinese Balance Of Payments

The balance of payments is the most scientific and complete record reflecting international economic transactions and transaction flows.The balance of payments has also become an important link in analyzing the national economic situation of a country.A country's balance of payments structure will have an important impact on its interest rate,exchange rate,trade,finance,foreign exchange management,and foreign investment.The balance of payments can allow us to understand and grasp the interconnections between domestic and foreign economies Situation and mutual influence,so as to better formulate corresponding economic policies.According to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund(IMF)and other international agencies,China regularly releases statistics and data on the balance of payments.He and commercial banks provide an important basis for China's risk credit rating,which is convenient for China to raise funds in the international capital market.Since the reform and opening up,China's balance of payments has roughly gone through three stages: the first stage,the relative balance of payments in 1982-1993;the second stage,the stage of "double surplus" in 1994-2011;The third phase is the alternating phase of balance of payments surplus and deficit from 2012 to 2019.In theory,a country 's balance of payments should be balanced overall,but as China 's opening up process continues to deepen,China 's balance of payments structure is different from that of other countries in the world.Accounts and capital and financial accounts have a surplus at the same time,that is,a "double surplus" balance of payments structure.The first "double surplus" appeared in China's balance of payments in 1987.From 1999 to2011,China's "double surplus" international income support continued for 13 years.As of 2019,China's balance of payments structure appeared "double "Surplus" up to 21 times.From 2012 to 2019,with new changes in China's balance of payments,many scholars believe that China's balance of payments will shift from a "double surplus"model to a "current account surplus + capital and financial account deficit" balance model.After the baptism of the financial crisis in 2008,the global economic development situation is not optimistic,the economic recovery is slow,liquidity is shrinking,unilateralism and trade protectionism are prevalent,and the trend of counter-globalization is constantly showing new performance.China's economic development has also entered a new stage,the "new normal".In the context of the "new normal" economic situation,internal economic regulation,such as de-capacity,de-stocking,de-leveraging,cost reduction,supplementing shortcomings,maintaining growth,and adjusting structure,has become the primary task.The complex interweaving of domestic and international economic situations has had a major impact on China's balance of payments.The "double surplus" pattern of China's balance of payments has gradually disappeared since 2012.In recent years,the surplus of trade in goods under the current account of the balance of payments has continued to decline,and the deficit in the trade in services has continued to increase.Upgrades and adjustments,the development and innovation of the financial services industry,and the deepening of the opening of capital and financial accounts,the surplus changes in capital and financial accounts will show significant volatility.Under the background of economic globalization,imbalance of international payments,and the new normal of China 's economy,this paper focuses on the analysis of the changes in major items of China 's balance of payments and summarizes the impacts on China 's international balance.The main factors for changes in revenues and expenditures are verified through empirical analysis,and policy recommendations for maintaining a balance of international payments are proposed.The research on the influencing factors of China's balance of payments has its theoretical and practical significance.On the one hand,the traditional balance of payments life cycle theory has certain limitations,and the balance of payments situation in many countries cannot be explained by this theory.Therefore,the study of changes in China's balance of payments structure can further improve the theory theoretically.On the other hand,it systematically sorts out several stages of China's balance of payments development,analyzes the main factors affecting the changes in China's balance of payments,verifies them,and puts forward practical policy recommendations.Based on the research methods of literature analysis,theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,this paper studies the impact of economic growth,industrial structure and RMB exchange rate on China's international balance of payments based on thespecial circumstances of the country.The paper is mainly divided into five parts:The first part is an introduction,which mainly introduces the research background and research significance of China's balance of payments changes;summarizes the previous experience by summarizing domestic and foreign literature reviews;introduces the main research content and research methods of this article;summarizes the innovations and deficiencies of this article.The second part is an overview of China's balance of payments,which mainly analyzes the three stages of changes in China's balance of payments;summarizes and analyzes the characteristics of China's balance of payments.The third part is the main factors affecting the changes in China's balance of payments.This part focuses on the analysis of the impact of economic growth,industrial structure,and exchange rates on China's balance of payments,and discusses the impact on the current account and capital and financial accounts.The fourth part is the empirical analysis,through the construction of the VAR model to study the impact of economic growth,industrial structure,and exchange rate on China's balance of payments,selecting the actual GDP growth index as an indicator of economic growth factors,and selecting the actual growth of the value added of the three industries The index is taken as the industrial structure factor,the actual effective exchange rate index of RMB is selected as the exchange rate factor,and the balance between the current account balance and the capital and financial account is selected as the indicator of changes in the balance of payments.The fifth part is empirical conclusions and policy recommendations.It summarizes empirical analysis and draws conclusions.Combining theory and reality,it puts forward policy recommendations to maintain the balance of international payments.