Research On The Effects Of Corporate Bonds Rate’s Factors On Early Warning Of Bond Defaults

In 2019,China’s bond custody scale surpassed Japan,becoming the world’s second largest and growing rapidly.Corporate bonds occupies an important position among them,and they are often issued on credit without collateral.With the expansion of the scale of corporate bonds,due to reasons such as poor management of some financing entities in the market,the inability to pay interest and principal on time,corporate bond defaults continue one after another.Bond defaults have caused significant losses to investors,and their risk management problems It has received great attention from all walks of life.How to reflect the intrinsic value of corporate bonds,reduce the loss caused by bond default,and how to warn the risk of bond default is the core content of the majority of investors’ attention,and it is also the company’s need to think about how to deal with debt problems in advance.This article analyzes the influencing factors of bond interest rates,and explores the dynamic impact of macro factors on bond interest rates based on the VAR model.On this basis,using the data of corporate bonds issued between 2015 and 2019,combined with macro and micro factors to establish a bond interest rate regression model.Based on this,a bond default early warning model was proposed to test the bonds issued by A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2017,and it was found that more than 80%of default bonds would issue early warning signals.Then,the machine learning algorithm is used to model,the default risk of corporate bonds is studied,the parameters used in the interest rate influencing factor model,the BP neural network model and the support vector machine method are used to build the early warning model.The results show that these two models have Good early warning effect.After qualitative and quantitative analysis and comparison with the Z score and KMV model,it is found that the impact of changes in interest rate factors on interest rates can achieve the function of early warning,and it is a reliable choice that can be used to determine whether corporate bonds are in default.Finally,the article puts forward relevant constructive suggestions.