Research On The Influence Of Local Government Implicit Debt Risk On Regional Financial Security In Gansu Province

The report on the work of the government for 2018 highlighted the need to "guard against and defuse the risks of local government debt,prohibit all kinds of illegal borrowing and guarantee activities,actively yet prudently dispose of outstanding debt,and improve the standardized financing mechanism for local government borrowing".At present,the risk of local government debt in China is generally under control.However,with the increasingly strict and standardized management of local government debt,all kinds of illegal disguised debt become more hidden and complex,and the hidden debt risk of local government becomes more prominent.In 2018,the state council issued the opinions on preventing and defusing hidden debt risks of local governments to actively promote the prevention and defusing of hidden debt risks.Judging from the governance status and problems of hidden debts of local governments in China,there is still a long way to go to prevent and defuse the risks of hidden debts of local governments.Firstly,this paper introduces the concept and scope of local government's implicit debt and regional financial security,and the influence of local government's implicit debt on regional financial security,so as to grasp their connotations and relevant theoretical basis.Secondly,the paper analyzes the status quo and formation mechanism of hidden debt of local governments in Gansu Province.Combining with the availability of required data,it selects the risk measurement index of hidden debt of local governments,constructs the risk index system of hidden debt of local governments,and calculates the risk index of hidden debt of local governments in Gansu Province.By analyzing the current situation of financial operation in Gansu Province and its external influencing factors,the financial security index of Gansu Province was selected to construct the financial security index system of Gansu Province and calculate its index.By defining the relevant variables and establishing the VAR model,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the influence of hidden debt risk of local government in Gansu Province on regional financial security,and draws experimental results and empirical conclusions.Finally,according to the empirical analysis results,from the specific subject background,to give targeted policy recommendations.This paper holds that the prevention and resolution of hidden debt risks of local governments requires the joint participation and governance of local government departments,relevant financial institutions and even financial regulatory authorities,so as to define their own positioning,accurately identify risks and maintain regional financial security.