Research On The Impact Of Exchange Rate Fluctuation On Sino-US Trade

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States,trade between the two countries has become more and more frequent.With the increasing trade volume and deepening cooperation in different fields,China and the United States have become the second largest trading partner of each other.However,the trade friction between China and the United States has become increasingly prominent.For the reason of Sino-U.S.trade frictions,the U.S.attributed it to the undervalued exchange rate of RMB,and repeatedly demanded the appreciation of RMB.Since China’s exchange rate reform in 2005,the RMB exchange rate has been constantly adjusted,and the U.S.trade deficit with China has continued to exist,especially since the Sino-U.S.trade war,the Sino-U.S.trade friction has become increasingly prominent.Therefore,whether the RMB exchange rate is the root cause of China US trade deficit for many years has always been the focus of attention.Based on the marshall-lerner condition under the trade balance theory,this paper studies the relationship between the actual exchange rate between China and the United States and the trade export volume between China and the United States.Based on the summary of relevant literature at home and abroad,this paper introduces the development process of the trade balance theory,focusing on the marshall-lerner condition and the j-curve effect.In addition,it also summarizes the course of China’s exchange rate reform and the international background and development status of sino-us trade,and analyzes the causes of sino-us trade friction in depth.By constructing a tvp-var-sv model with random volatility,the paper analyzes the relationship between the actual exchange rate of China and the United States,the export volume of China and the growth rate of China’s industrial added value,and studies the impact of exchange rate shocks on China’s trade with the United States.The empirical results show that RMB exchange rate is not the decisive factor to effectively alleviate the trade surplus between China and the United States.Through empirical analysis,we can draw the conclusion that the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will cause the change of Sino-U.S.trade exports in the short term and will not have a significant impact on Sino-U.S.trade in the long term.This paper also puts forward some suggestions,such as the steady adjustment of RMB exchange rate,strengthening the tolerance of import and export enterprises to exchange rate fluctuations,establishing the information disclosure system of exchange rate market intervention,encouraging independent innovation,and optimizing Economic structure,etc.