| At present,in China's securities market,there are many small and medium-sized investors with low ability to acquire information and weak professional interpretation.However,in the relevant information disclosed in the company'5 financial report,a series of accounting professional knowledge is difficult to understand,and it is urgent for analysts with such professional and experienced groups to play the role of information interpretation,providing investors with earnings forecasts and Investment Advice.Since the establishment of the stock market,analysts have played an important role in alleviating information asymmetry in the capital market,but subject to various conflicts of interest,analysts may have serious selectivity bias and tend to release optimistic earnings forecasts(O' Brien,1988).At the same time,this kind of optimistic preference is common in bull market and bear market,which provides sufficient reason for the market to question its forecast quality,and also brings great impact and induction to the healthy development of capital market and the optimal allocation of resources.It has received extensive attention from regulators,investors and academics.With the institutional innovation of the capital market and the rapid development of the analyst industry,analysts predict that the influence in the capital market is growing,and it has become a research hotspot in the macro capital market and micro finance.So,it is necessary to study how to improve the accuracy of analyst forecasts.Analysts predict the reasons for bias include the internal characteristics of the analyst and the external information environment,where internal factors are mainly driven by investment interests(Dugar,1995;Ackert,2003;Mokoaleli et al.,2010),maintaining personal reputation(Hong et Al.,2000),motivational factors or cognitive bias(Kang et al.,1994),combined with emotions and interests(Wu Yanran et al.s 2012).The external information environment mainly includes public information and private information.The main forms of public information are information disclosure,media reports and stock prices,while private information needs to be obtained through company management communication and field visits(Tan Songtao and Cui Xiaoyong,2015).How these different sources of information will affect analyst forecasts has attracted the attention of scholars,some of which focus on information disclosure(Lang and Lundholm,1996;Li Danmeng,2007;Bai Xiaoyu,2009;Tan Yue et al.,2013),Media reports(Tan Songtao et al.,2015)and private information(Zhao Liangyu et al.,2013)have an impact on analysts' quality predictions,but did not take into account the impact of stock prices.Subject to the company's "endowment of insufficient",there may be serious selective deviations in the stock price to the market,that is,when the stock price information is rich(that is,there are more company-level information in the stock price,such as the fixture demand changes of the company's products,eompany competitors When the information,etc.),the rise in stock price may mean that external investors are optimistic about the company's future investment prospects(Yu Lifeng et al.2014),and analysts are more likely to give more optimistic forecasts for these stock prices for their own benefit.In this case,the selective deviation of the transmission of stock price information will make it difficult for the company's real situation to be disclosed to external investors in a timely and accurate manner.When these messages are accumulated to a certain extent and finally released,it may lead to the analyst's prediction of serious failure.So,does the stoek-rich information affect the quality of analysts' predictions?Does the company's "insufficient endowment"exacerbate the relationship between the two?Based on the above analysis,this paper selects the Chinese A-share market from 2007 to 2017,a total of 14620 annual-company samples test the impact of stock price information on analysts' earnings forecast,adopts fixed-effects model regression,and uses hysteresis for both explanatory variables and control variables.Period data solves endogenous problems.Research shows,(1)The rich stock price information can significantly reduce theanalyst's forecast bias,forecast optimism and forecast differences,and increase the number of analysts to track,so that the analyst,s forecast quality is significantly improved;(2)The lower the proportion of institutional shareholding,the weaker internal control,and the worse the transparency of the company,the more positive the relationship between the stock price information content and the analyst's forecast quality.This shows that the stock price information content is an important factor affecting the quality of analysts'predictions,and the companyls "endowment of insufficient,will aggravate the positive relationship between the two;(3)Based on the regression test,the robustness test was carried out,and the reliability of the conclusion was further verified by replacing the indicators such as the analyst's forecast bias,forecasting optimism,analyst tracking number and stock price information;(4)Finally,the Heckrnan two-step method for the endogenousity-self-selection problem in the model is tested to verify that even if there are endogenous problems such as self-selection,the stock information content can still improve the analyst's prediction accuracy.The research contribution of this paper is as follows:Firstly,unlike the previous research on the impact of basic information such as public information disclosure and research on the quality of analysts' predictions,this paper firstly examines the richness of stock price information,the analyst's forecast bias,and the forecast optimism.Predicting differences and tracking the economic impact of the number of people has deepened the relevant research on analyst bias.Secondly,this paper introduces the characteristics of the company's development stage into the research framework of analysts' predictive quality,and finds for the first time that the relationship between the stock price information content and the analyst's forecast quality is significantly different between the rich endowment and the endowment,which deepens the Field research.Finally,unlike previous studies,this paper finds that if stock information is rich in content,if analysts can exploit this information content and apply it to research and forecast,then this information will effectively play its resource allocation function,forming a stock price and analysis.The benign interaction between the divisions predicts that the entire capital market is more efficient,thus providing new evidence and supplements for the theory and research of "asset pricing". |
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