The Design And Fluctuation Analysis Of The Prosperity Index Of The Wine E-commerce Sales Market

China's wine production began to recover in the 1980s.During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period,the impact of the financial crisis limited the development of foreign wine industry,which led many brands to focus on the Chinese market with a large population base.As China's import tariffs on some wine-producing countries have been reduced or even zero-tariff policies have been implemented,a large number of foreign wine brands have rushed into the Chinese market.Some foreign brands have used information asymmetry to seize profits,and China's wine market has entered a "chaotic period." With the development of the information age,e-commerce has begun to rise,and the traditional offline sales model has been challenged.Although its purchase channel still maintains the first total sales,the sales share has begun to decline.During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period,with the development of economy and urbanization,the middle class became the fastest growing group and became the main force of wine consumption.People pay more attention to their health and start to buy wine for the purpose of drinking.By the"Thirteenth Five-Year Plan"stage,the state stressed the need to promote the integration of the Internet and social economy,expand the network economic space,and the wine e-commerce market also ushered in new opportunities.However,the characteristics of wine products are fragile,which leads to high transportation costs.The development of the e-comnerce market is constrained.The game between online and offline market share is promising.At the same time,the prosperity index has been widely used in the monitoring of cyclical changes in a certain industry or enterprise in the current stage.In this context,this paper takes the wine market of the e-commerce platform as the research goal,and studies the cyclical trend of this market by constructing the prosperity index to find the prosperity of the wine sales market and the time rule of the depression period.Provide a reference to enter and exit the market.For the e-commerce platform,using its own data advantages,combined with the cyclical trend forecast of the prosperity index,the platform shoppers recommend wine products in real time.Establish an information sharing mechanism with merchants.Before the warming up of the e-commerce wine market,the company is prompted to do product inventory preparation,product pricing and logistics protection.Master the changes in the market cycle,combined with the offline joint development model,picking orders online,and delivering goods offline,saving time and saving transportation costs and reducing transportation difficulties.This paper applies the prosperity index method to the wine sales market of the e-commerce platform,including data cleaning,sorting,summarizing and utilizing the micro-e-commerce platform wine products,including the analysis of the market sentiment analysis theory and the wine e-commerce sales market boom.A summary of the influencing factors.The construction of the prosperity index system includes the micro data obtained by the web crawler and the macro data published by the official platform.The micro data is used to obtain basic information,sales volume and user information of the daily e-commerce platform wine products via the web crawler.It is obtained by processing the original data deduplication,the canonical field,the missing value interpolation,the false data rejection,and the calculation of the monthly cumulative index number.The selection of indicators is through the qualitative and quantitative methods,qualitative selection of the standard reference economic prosperity index,the selection of the score system according to the economic sentiment analysis indicators,comprehensive evaluation of the indicators,screening out indicators with scores above 60.Then,by using the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Spearman correlation coefficient,the indicators related to the sales data are quantitatively screened.The selected indicators were seasonally adjusted by the X-12-ARIMA method and combined with the time difference correlation analysis method,the K-L information method and the cluster analysis method,and the indicators were classified into two indicators groups:the first one and the first.The method of repeating the correlation coefficient identification information in the past will cover the prediction ability of the index to a certain extent.By reading the relevant literature,a composite independent information weighting method proposed by Leng Yuan was selected to give higher weights to some indicators with good predictive ability.The prosperity index calculated in this paper is the diffusion index and the synthetic index.According to its data type,the leading,consistent diffusion index and the leading and consistent synthetic index are obtained.The conclusion shows that overall,the market has been in a sluggish state for a long time in 2014.After entering 2015,the situation has obviously improved.In the whole year,the market is almost in a state of prosperity,and in 2016 there was a significant cooling,but Beginning in 2016,some important holiday promotion activities on some platforms led to the fourth quarter.The grapeball market in the year had a super boom period,and from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017,it entered a more normal,half-year boom period.Looking at the quarter as the axis,the wine market of China,s e-commerce platform has a cycle of change of six months,from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of the following year,and in the second and third quarters of each year,the market is relatively slow.The innovation of this paper is to combine the actual micro data and macroeconomic data to design the prosperity index system of the e-commerce platform wine market.Due to the time period and data source limitation,the final time interval is quarterly,and the time interval of fluctuation trend Can not be further refined,to be improved.