Shadow Banks,Monetary Policy And Economic Growth

By constructing a vector autoregressive model under different mechanisms,this paper studies the effects of shadow banking on the effect of monetary policy regulation through the real estate market and the transmission mechanism that influences economic growth through local government financing platforms.Among them,the research on the transmission mechanism of shadow banking,real estate market and monetary policy shows that the tightening monetary policy under the price mechanism has an asymmetric effect on the impact of shadow banking scale and housing prices.In the short term,raising interest rates will increase the money supply.In terms of quantity,it is easier to induce the expansion of shadow banking scale and promote housing price increase.In the long run,the interest rate increase will strengthen the liquidity tightening effect,which will inhibit the expansion of shadow banking scale and housing price to some extent;in addition,the shadow bank weakens The effect of tightening monetary policy on social credit and house prices under the price mechanism has increased the difficulty of the central bank in regulating macroeconomics through monetary policy.The research on the dynamic relationship between shadow banking,local government debt and economic growth shows that in the short-term,the scale of shadow banking and the expansion of local government debt will drive local economic growth,while in the long run,shadow banking and local government Excessive debt expansion will amplify local economic debt risk and financial fragility,and increase the "crowding out effect" of government public capital expenditure on private sector investment,which has a negative effect on macroeconomic growth.Therefore,in order to achieve sustainable economic growth,it is necessary to adopt a three-pronged approach of monetary policy,fiscal policy,and financial market to correctly guide the flow of funds from shadow banks and reduce the size of the real estate market bubble and local government debt.Based on this paper,specific recommendations are proposed to give policy makers new inspiration.