An Empirical Study On The Impact Of China Agrricultural Commodity Futures Price On Relevant Stock Price

China has been a major agricultural country since ancient times,with agriculture playing an indispensably important part in China’s economic and social development.In January 2020,the Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council issued the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting Agriculture,Farmers,and Rural Areas,and Ensuring the Realization of a Comprehensive Prosperous Society as Scheduled".The Promotion of agriculture,farmers,and rural areas will be achieved before the whole country becomes a comprehensive well-off society.Therefore,we need to sustain the price of agricultural products,improve farmers’ income so that they are pleased with their lives and jobs,and thereby ensuring food security and social stability by the hands of the government and the market.Meanwhile,China’s futures market has been developing for thirty years,with its agricultural commodity futures market developing at a rapid pace and the trading volume constantly increasing.In recent years,there have been many types of agricultural product futures varieties that rank top in the global trading lot rankings.As a tool for risk management and risk transfer,agricultural commodity futures help to hedge risks and evade losses.Therefore,exploring whether there is a certain relationship between the price of agricultural commodity futures and related stock prices help companies and investors to make reasonable judgments and decisions based on the price of agricultural commodity futures in the market.This article studies the soybean meal futures and apple futures prices and the stock prices of listed companies in related industries as research samples according to the global agricultural product trading lot in 2018.Through the ADF test,Engle-Granger cointegration test,and error correction model(ECM),the relationship between the prices of agricultural product futures and the stock prices of related listed companies is examined from several aspects,and the performance and prices for listed companies in related industries are empirically analyzed to help investors,governments,and production operators form an expectation on the stock price trend of related companies based on the futures price.The following conclusions are drawn through research that at a 5% significance level,there is a long-term equilibrium between soybean meal futures and the stock price of Guangzhou Donlink International Investment Co,Ltd.,and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the price of apple futures and the stock price of SDIC Zhonglu Fruit Juice Co,Ltd.;The rate of correction of the prices of two agricultural futures relative to the stock prices is relatively slow.In addition,the stock prices of related companies have a lagging response to changes in agricultural futures prices.