Study On The Phase Correlation Between Chinese Stock Matket And Housing Market Stage

In the context of the global integration process,the global financial market is becoming more and more closely related,so many scholars have begun to study the volatility of the financial market.As the main capital market of our country,the stock market and the real estate market have made great progress since the establishment of the capital market.But in the process of development,the stock market and the real estate market have exposed the disadvantages of the development,such as the large fluctuation range,the more frequent fluctuation of the price,and the fluctuation not independent,Having some kind of relevance.Real estate has the property of consumption,and now it has the property of investment gradually.Property and stock have become the investment tools that people pay attention to.The fluctuation of stock price and the change of house price will change the stock of the residents’ wealth,thus change the income distribution and consumption decision of the residents,and then affect the allocation of resources and supply and demand of the whole economy and society.Balance.And we find that in the two market price fluctuations,the two have different dynamic relationships at different time periods.This dynamic correlation,to some extent,reflects the psychological change of people in consumption and investment and the role of policy in it.Therefore,the relevance of two market returns under different macroeconomic conditions can not only promote the further development and improvement of the Chinese stock market and the real estate market,but also provide some meaningful reference for the implementers of macroeconomic policy and the investors.In recent years,domestic and foreign scholars have done more empirical research on the relationship between stock market and housing market,but there are different opinions on the relationship between the two.Based on the Eliot wave theory,the stock market is divided into "bear market" and "bull market" based on Eliot wave theory.Based on the traditional measurement method,the volatility spillover effect model and dynamic correlation DCC-GARCH model are introduced on the basis of traditional measurement methods.We further analyze the volatility spillover effects of stock market and housing market,and use R and Eviews parameters to estimate the correlation between housing market and stock market.Based on the characteristics of China’s stock market and housing market,this paper analyses the relationship between the rate of return on the stock market and the rate of return of the housing market in combination with theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.First,we theoretically analyze the interactive relationship between China’s stock market and the housing market from two perspectives of micro and macro,and then use ADF unit root test,VAR model,impulse response function analysis,Grainger causality test,VAR-BEKK-GARCH volatility spillover test and DCC-GARCH dynamic analysis and other measurement methods for stock market and housing market returns.The empirical study of the fluctuation correlation between them is done.According to the empirical results,the stock market and the housing market returns are affected by the early fluctuation.In the-2017 period of 2005,there is a significant two-way wave transfer effect between the stock market and the housing market.Both the price changes will be transferred to another market;the relative number of the two market returns is changed,and the overall negative phase is on the whole.No matter whether the stock market is a "bear market" or "bull market",the correlation does not change because of the difference in the stock market.On the whole,the stock market is the Grainger cause of the change in the housing market.At last,the paper analyzes the correlation between different intervals,and puts forward feasible policy recommendations.