Research On The Impact Of US Monetary Policy's Adjustment On China's Stock Market Price

With the constantly development of the domestic financial market,its linkage with the international financial market has been continuously enhanced,and it has been deeply affected by the changes in the global political and economic environment.Because of the important position of the US dollar in the world,the Fed has actually be the "global central bank".The adjustment of Fed's monetary policy will change the global asset pricing base,especially to the stock market price.Nevertheless,different from the impact of China's monetary policy on domestic stock market prices,the impact of US monetary policy adjustments on China's stock market prices will be more complicated.On the one hand,the US monetary policy can directly affect the domestic stock market price by changing the global asset-based return rate.On the other hand,it can also indirectly impact the domestic stock market price through short-term capital flow,exchange rate,interest rate and psychological expectations.Considering that the United States has basically completed a new round of interest rate hikes,by studying the impact of the Fed,s new round of interest rate hikes on the domestic stock market,it will help to assess and predict the impact of future US monetary policy changes on China's financial market.It provides an important reference for the formulation and adjustment of relevant domestic policies in China.By combining quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis,this paper analyzes the spillover effects of US monetary policy changes on China's stock market prices during the Fed's interest rate hike.Firstly,it theoretically expounds the international transmission mechanism of monetary policy under the condition of open economy.On this basis,it summarizes and analyzes several representative transmission channels of the adjustment of US monetary policy affecting the price of China's stock market,followed by exchange rate channels,interest rate channels,and short-term.Capital flow channels and psychological expectations channels.Secondly,it analyzes the reasons why the Fed ends the quantitative easing policy and implements the interest rate hike policy.It summarizes the process of the new Fed rate hike and the corresponding economic background,and expounds the continuous growth and improvement of the domestic financial market.The development of the domestic stock market,the reform process of the exchange rate system,the progress of interest rate marketization,the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect system,the renminbi joining the SDR,and the A-shares being included in the MSCI as the Fed's interest rate hike during the Fed's interest rate hike can affect the Chinese stock market.The realistic basis of price.Thirdly,quantitative analysis selects time series variables US federal funds rate,Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index,US dollar against RMB exchange rate,7th Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate,short-term capital flow,consumer confidence index as US monetary policy variables,China stock market In the empirical research process,price variables,exchange rate variables,interest rate variables,short-term capital flow variables and psychological expectation variables are represented.Firstly,the ADF unit root test is performed on the time series variables used in this paper,and then a stable time series is established.The VAR model is tested and the stability of the VAR model is tested.Finally,the Granger causality test,impulise response function and variance decomposition are used to study the impact of the Fed rate hike on China's stock market price.Through analysis,this paper believes that the adjustment of monetary policy during the Fed's interest rate hike has a significant spillover effect on China's stock market price;the effect of the Fed's interest rate hike on China's stock market price is the exchange rate channel,interest rate transmission channel,psychological expectation.Transmission channels,short-term capital flow transmission channels;and empirical research found that the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on China's stock market prices in the short term is very significant,and the impact gradually disappears over time in the long run.Finally,according to the research content and research conclusions of this paper,the policy recommendations are put forward:perfecting China's stock market,actively exerting the role of the market in resource allocation;further improving the RMB exchange rate management level;still need to intensify efforts to promote interest rate marketization reform;Gradually and prudently promote the opening of capital projects;strengthen the management of expectations.The innovation of this paper is:on the one hand,it enriches the spillover effect analysis of US monetary policy adjustment,focuses on the US monetary policy spillover effect on China's stock market price,and studies the impact of the new round of Fed rate hike on China's stock market price.On the other hand,it expands the transmission channel of the US monetary policy spillover effect,and uses the psychological anticipation transmission channel as a representative transmission channell,so as to more comprehensively explore the impact of US monetary policy adjustment on China's stock market price.