Research On The Impact Of Bilateral RMB De Facto Exchange Rate Regime On Exports

The issue of the impact of exchange rates on export trade has always been a hot issue in international economics research.As a way of forming a country’s exchange rate,the exchange rate system plays an important role in the international financial field.The exchange rate system will not only affect the macroeconomic level of economic growth,monetary policy effects,foreign exchange market,but also play a major role in the scale of a country’s import and export trade.In the past 40 years of reform and opening up,the reform of the RMB exchange rate system has been affecting the development of China’s macro economy and foreign trade.In the context of changing global trading environment,China’s export trade faces more opportunities and challenges.In 2018,the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China first proposed the "six stable" economic work requirements,and the stable foreign trade" put forward new requirements for China’s import and export trade.At present,China has gradually deepened its trade cooperation with traditional trading partners and countries along the Belt and Road.Foreign trade has generally shown a good momentum of"steady progress".The Chinese government has adopted a series of targeted export trade policies to actively respond to changes in the international trade environment,including a fundamental exchange rate system response plan.This shows the importance and determination of the Chinese government to promote exports.An in-depth analysis of the bilateral de facto exchange rate system between China and its trading partners has important practical guiding significance for China’s export trade.This paper first summarizes the typical literature on the impact of bilateral factual exchange rate system on export scale at home and abroad,and explores the research points that can be further explored.Secondly,it theoretically analyzes the impact of the exchange rate system on export trade and proposes relevant propositional hypotheses.Afterwards,drawing on the classic gravity model,we selected the top 20 trading partners of China’s export trade volume,and combined with the export data of China’s 2005 "exchange reform" for more than a decade,the bilateral de facto exchange rate system,exchange rate level,exchange rate change rate,The GDP of the importing country is used as an explanatory variable,and the export value of China and trading partners is used as the explanatory variable.The empirical results show that the bilateral fixed exchange rate system has a greater role in promoting export trade than the bilateral floating exchange rate system.From this,it can be concluded that the impact of the fixed exchange rate system on international trade cannot be ignored,and establishing a more stable bilateral exchange rate relationship is of great significance for increasing the volume of international trade.Finally,combined with the reality of China’s RMB exchange rate system reform and the status quo of export trade,it puts forward feasible suggestions.