Research On The Impact Of Outward Foreign Direct Investment On Overcapacity Of Manufacturing Industry

China's economy has entered a new normal,and the economic growth rate has gradually slowed down.On the one hand,China's manufacturing industry is facing rising labor costs,and on the other hand,the problem of overcapacity is becoming more and more serious.Overcapacity creates a large amount of useless production capacity,which will result in serious waste of resources,and is more likely to lead to vicious competition in the market.Serious overcapacity is also likely to cause China's economy to be locked in the low-end and to be in a lower position in the global value chain for a long time,unable to change the role of passive embedding in the global value chain,resulting in the lack of economic development in China.In order to realize the adjustment of the economic structure and the sustained and healthy development of the economy during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period,we must pay attention to the problem of overcapacity and propose effective and effective methods of governance.Since the 1990 s,the Chinese government has paid attention to the problem of overcapacity and has intensively introduced a series of production control opinions.However,the effect of the policy has had little effect,and the problem of overcapacity is still grim.Since 2013,the Party Central Government headed by Xi Jinping has proposed the "One Belt and One Road" strategy,which provides a new path for the solution of overcapacity problem: In the case of insufficient domestic market demand,we should leverage the "One Belt and One Road" strategy.Through outward foreign direct investment,while building a mutually beneficial and win-win development ecosystem between China and other countries and regions along the line,we can use the international market to resolve some overcapacity and promote the optimization and adjustment of China's industrial structure and the improvement of international competitiveness.According to this idea,this paper studies the impact of outward foreign direct investment on China's manufacturing overcapacity under the "One Belt and One Road" perspective,and uses the econometric model to analyze the factors affecting capacity utilization and the impact mechanism of outward foreign direct investment on capacity utilization.The basic idea of thesis writing: The first part is the introduction.After analyzing the background and research significance,the paper reviews the related issues of the research content.The second part is the theory and hypothesis,including the definition of outward foreign direct investment,overcapacity,and the "One Belt and One Road" research horizon.Based on this,the direct impact of outward foreign direct investment on overcapacity is analyzed through product life cycle theory and geese industry development form theory.Indirect effect of outward foreign direct investment on overcapacity is analyzed through trade substitution theory,trade complementarity theory,technology correlation effect and knowledge spillover effect theory.As the theoretical basis of this study,the corresponding research hypothesis is proposed.The third part mainly measures and analyzes the degree of overcapacity in China's manufacturing industry.Using the principle of data envelopment analysis,this paper uses CCR-O model and M-index model to conduct static and dynamic empirical analysis of manufacturing capacity utilization,and on this basis Descriptive statistical analysis of outward foreign direct investment under the "One Belt and One Road" perspective.The fourth part is the empirical analysis.Firstly,the empirical model is constructed based on the direct impact theory hypothesis.This paper uses the OLS regression method to empirically analyze the panel data of 27 manufacturing secondary industries from 2007 to 2017.The results show that outward direct investment has a restraining effect on overcapacity under the "One Belt and One Road" vision.Industry barriers to entry,fluctuations in economic cycles,investment in fixed assets,and domestic consumption are also important variables affecting overcapacity.Secondly,based on the theoretical basis of indirect impact,this paper introduces two intermediaries of export and technology.The variables are used to construct a mediation effect model to analyze the specific relationship chain between outward foreign direct investment and capacity utilization.The results show that trade and technology play a mediating role between outward foreign direct investment and capacity utilization.The fifth part is related policy recommendations.For the empirical results,this paper proposes policy recommendations,in order to realize the overcapacity of the manufacturing industry and the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure,while promoting the mutually beneficial and win-win development of China and the countries and regions along the "One Belt and One Road".