The Empirical Study On Default Risk Of Credit Card Installment Loan

In recent years,due to domestic demand expansion and consumption upgrading,in order to allow more long-tail customers to enjoy the convenience of consumer finance,credit card installment has been gradually developed in China,becoming the main development business of major Banks.With the continuous development of credit cards,in order to increase the income of intermediary business,Banks are more and more inclined to carry out large-amount installment business,thus obtaining higher fee income.Therefore,the installment loans,as decoration installment,automobile installment and other large amount installment,have been developing rapidly.At the same time,with the convenience and low threshold of large-amount installment loans,it is gradually favored by consumers and becomes one of the ways for consumers to pay large amount consumption.The competition of credit card installment market is increasingly fierce.In order to compete for the so-called high-quality customers,the development trend of credit card installment loan is to avoid collateral,simplify materials,and facilitate procedures,which rely more strongly on the credit situation of customers.Due to the late development of the installment business in China,a complete theoretical system has not been formed,enough historical data have not been accumulated,and the promotion of credit card installment business in the banking industry is extensive.This article attempts to explore the main influence factors of credit card installment default risk through the theoretical and empirical analysis,thereby helping to reduce the risks of commercial Banks,improve efficiency,effectively promote the risk prevention system of credit card installment loan and make the institution perfectly.This paper mainly explores the influence factors on default risk of special credit card installment products from three aspects: the current situation of credit card installment development,theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of installment default.After reading a large amount literature,we choose the method of logistics regression and use the real data of the commercial Banks in recent years.Empirical analysis has carried on the comparative analysis and regression analysis,and the results show that:the usage of installment funds has more obvious influence on the probability of default,thus to confirm capital flows and to designate the usage of installment loan can significantly reduce the possibility of default;taking automobile installment for instance,the default rates on credit card installment loan are influenced by age,gender,household registration,job nature,holding credit card or not,fixed line of credit card,access type,channel of apply for installment,installment payments of each month,staging periods,proportion of down payment,paying installment fee or not,mortgaging or not,whether an exception approval,and so on.Combined with the risk characteristics and default factors of the installment loan in this paper,Banks can lay more emphasis on the establishment of access and risk management rules.