Research On The Influencing Mechanism Of Urbanization On Urban Economic Resilience

As a complex system,there are increasingly close relationships between cities' own components,its parts and itself as a whole.Any part of the city which has been hit by external shocks will also have impact on other components and even the whole city.Nowadays,countries all over the world may face the adverse effects of changes with the characteristics of uncertainties,diversities and complexity at any time.Some shocks(such as natural disasters that are difficult to predict accurately)cannot be completely avoided.Some cities have become bruised and depressed after the crisis,while others have been able to face challenges and even achieve rapid development on the basis of recovery and reconstruction.How do cities deal with more challenges and crises in the future actively and quickly restore the original vitality and continue to develop after being hit is a realistic problem worthy of attention.A new discipline called sustainability science,which is represented by the concept of "resilience",emerged under this background.Cities are the center of politics,economy,culture,science and technology in a certain region,the agglomeration effect and spillover effect of urbanization have greatly promoted the development of regional economy.However,in recent years,with the population rapidly flood into big cities,a series of "urban diseases" such as housing difficulties,traffic congestion and environmental deterioration have begun to appear.Therefore,it is worth studying and thinking whether China's major cities have enough capacity to cope with these severe challenges in the future.Based on the above background,the research methods of this paper include literature review method,empirical analysis method and GIS spatial analysis method.Firstly,the urban economic resilience score of 31 provincial capitals in China in the last 10 years from 2007 to 2016 is obtained by using the comprehensive evaluation method to find out the basic situation of the new concept of urban economic resilience in big cities of China,and hope this study would provide useful reference for further research.Then according to the actual situation of cities in China,urbanization as the key influential factor is selected to study its impact on urban economic resilience through quantitative methods,therefore,we could have a deeper understanding of the influence mechanism,and artificially promote or inhibit some factors in the process of urbanization in order to achieve the purpose of improving urban economic resilience.The main conclusions of this paper including:(1)By analyzing the economic resilience of provincial capitals in China in the last 10 years,we find that the overall resilience score increases year by year,but the regional disparity is obvious.The resilience score of provincial capitals in the eastern region is far greater than that of the central and Western cities.Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou ranked the top three,while Xining and Yinchuan ranked the last two.Most of the top ten cities belong to the provincial capitals in the eastern coastal areas,while the latter dozens are also the western provincial capitals.The cities in the central region are located in 11-21 places as the middle part.This result shows that the gap between the East and the west is still very large.(2)After using panel data model to analyze the correlation between urbanization and economic resilience in the whole country,results show that the urbanization rate as the core variable of urbanization and the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry have a significant positive correlation with economic resilience;the number of hospital beds and the density of public transport,which represent the status of infrastructure,are also consistent with the improvement of economic resilience score,and the results are very significant.Residential water consumption and park green space area are the indicators of resource and environment,they are also positively correlated with economic resilience.After introducing spatial variables,the results of spatial econometric model are basically similar to those of panel data model,but the significance of result is stronger.(3)Spatial lag regression model is used to analyze the data of capital cities in eastern,central and western provinces respectively.In the cities of eastern region,results show that urbanization rate of population,urbanization rate of land and the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry are negatively correlated with the economic resilience.The number of hospital beds,the density of public transport,the amount of water used by residents and the green coverage of built-up areas were all positively correlated with the economic resilience.In the cities of central regions,the higher the urbanization rate of population,the stronger the economic resilience.There is significant positive correlation between the average public transport amount,bed number and residential water consumption variables with urban economic resilience,and it is noteworthy that higher density of public transport will reduce the economic resilience of the cities.In the cities of western regions,the urbanization rate of population,urbanization rate of land and the employees in the tertiary industry are positively correlated with economic resilience,which indicates that in order to improve economic resilience,western cities still need to improve the level of urbanization.The number of beds and the green area in the park are significantly positively correlated with economic resilience,while the other variables are not significant.