Research On Credit Evaluation Of Part-Time Farmers Based On Significant Discrimination Of Default Loss

With the development of modern agriculture,the rapid advancement of industrialization and urbanization,the types of farmers began to differentiate and gradually divided into three categories: pure-agricultural,part-time and non-agricultural farmers.The concurrent operation of farmers in China began in the 1980 s.The peasant households have now differentiated into the largest and most widely distributed group of farmers in China.This group is the main carrier for the birth of new agricultural management entities,and the concurrent farmers.Changes in economic behavior will have a greater impact on rural financial markets.However,due to its short term of loan,high frequency,tight time and small amount,it is also difficult to make loans and loans difficult for concurrent farmers because of its small scale of operation,weak financial strength,unsound financial information and large financing needs.The reason is that in addition to the inherent weakness of agriculture and the profitability of financial institutions,there is also an important reason that the self-employed farmers' credit risk is difficult to measure,and there is a “high credit rating,but the default loss rate instead.The unreasonable situation is not low,which leads to a serious high rate of non-performing loans for financial institutions.Therefore,based on the differentiation perspective of farmers' types,this paper selects concurrent-type farmers as the research object,aiming at establishing a reasonable credit risk evaluation system for the part-time farmers.On the one hand,it can carry out the concurrent practice for the agriculture-related financial institutions.The rural households' credit rating and loan pricing provide empirical basis,which helps the agriculture-related financial institutions to improve the risk management level and identify the key points of risk;on the other hand,it helps to solve the problem of “difficult loans and loans” The problem of the aspect is to effectively alleviate the financing constraints of the part-time farmers' credit main body,promote the healthy development of China's rural financial market,and inject new vitality into the development and growth of the new agricultural business subject.The structure of this paper is divided into five parts,as follows.The first chapter is the introduction,which mainly introduces the research background and significance of credit risk assessment,systematically sorts out relevant literature and summarizes the research content and methods.The second chapter is the theoretical basis and method of credit risk assessment.Firstly,it introduces the related concepts of concurrent farmer households,credit risk,default loss rate and significant discriminant principle of default loss.Secondly,the theoretical methods of credit risk assessment are introduced in detail,including the theoretical method of credit risk assessment index system construction,the theoretical method of credit risk assessment scoring system and the theoretical method of credit rating system.The third chapter is the empirical analysis of the credit risk assessment of the part-time farmers.Using the credit data of 3157 rural households in the country,through the partial correlation analysis-multiple stepwise regression analysis,the selection method is used to select the gender and marriage.A cross-employment household credit risk assessment index system consisting of 11 indicators including status and family population.The indicator system covers the basic characteristics of households,family characteristics,economic characteristics,loan characteristics,and the external macro environment of the location of the loan farmers..On this basis,the coefficient of variation is used to weight the indicators,and the credit scores of the concurrent farmers are determined by linear weighting.Finally,based on the Basel III credit rating level 9 standard,the fuzzy C-means algorithm is used to Household loans are clustered,and the nine categories are reordered according to the average value of LGD for each type of farmer.According to the standard of “loss-grade” matching “with strict increase in credit rating,the default loss rate is strictly reduced”,divided the credit rating of the part-time farmers.The fourth chapter is the characteristic mining analysis of the default loss rate of the concurrent rural household loans.Using the non-parametric test method to mine the different “characteristic attributes” of the same indicator,which kind of “characteristic attribute” is the biggest credit risk of the affected farmers.The key feature attributes finally revealed 11 key features that have a significant impact on the default loss rate of the part-time farmers.The fifth chapter is the conclusions and recommendations.Summarize and analyze the full text,put forward relevant policy recommendations,and point out the shortcomings of this paper and the subsequent parts that need to be improved and improved.This paper draws conclusions from empirical analysis: First,for the part-time farmers,gender,marital status,local people,family size,total liabilities,repayment methods,loan term,urban and rural per capita RMB savings deposits,financial institutions 11 indicators such as the per capita loan balance,the per capita deposit of financial institutions,the loan ratio,and the regional agricultural output value have significant impact on their default losses,and a set of credit risk assessment indicators system for concurrent employers has been obtained.Secondly,look for The result of the credit rating of the part-time farmer who meets the criteria of “increasing credit rate and strict default loss rate”,for example,the score range of AAA grade is [75.116,100],and the score range of AA is [63.371,74.923).With the increase of credit rating C?level A,the default loss rate shows a strict downward trend.Among them,the grade C?level CC,the default loss rate decreases the fastest.The default loss rate of AAA grade farmers is only 0.516%,indicating that the credit status of farmers at this level is better.In addition,the default loss rate of farmers with BB level and above is maintained in the [0.516,0.646] interval,and the concurrent financial institutions at or above the BB level can make appropriate loan decisions for the relevant financial institutions.Finally,this paper The key characteristics of 11 default loans affecting part-time farmers were discovered.For example,in terms of basic characteristics of farmers,the characteristics of “male” under the “gender” indicator,the “divorced” characteristics under the “marital status” indicator,and “whether local people” The three characteristics of “not local people” under the indicator are the key features affecting the default loss of concurrent rural household loans.