The Investment Decision Analysis Of Sharing Bicycle Industry Based On The Real Option And Game Theory

With the characteristics of "sharing" and "environmental protection" and "effectively solve the last mile travel",Sharing Bicycle got a very high valuation and strong capital support in in a very short period of time from 2016.As a result of more than one year development,two companies---Mobike and OFO almost occupied the whole market.In first tier cities,the two companies formed stock products competition pattern,and in the second and third tier cities,the two companies formed incremental competition pattern.Because of the fierce competition between the two companies,too many shared bicycles occupied the public space and caused a huge waste of resources.This reflects the excessive pursuit of high quality assets by financial capital.But from the view of the managers of the two companies,it is very important that they should know that how to make a reasonable strategic decision which can concern the invest uncertainty and competition at the same time.Through about the whole paper,the structure can be summarized as the following.Firstly,we analyze the shared bicycle industry competition situation and the nature of the business model.Then we introduce the basic theory about the real option and game theory.And then we talk about the application of the model for the real Sharing Bicycle industry.Finally,we combine the two parts to make a case study,and then give some advice.Maybe the better choice is that two companies work together to make a higer price level.And if a company has been a competition follower,maybe it is better to wait to see to acquire the uncertainty value.