Identification And Early Warning Of Personal Consumption Credit Risk

Nowadays,the competition in the industry is more and more fierce,and the global banking industry has a certain degree of income-generating problems.Therefore,many banks have changed their traditional profit-generating point,focusing on low-cost consumer credit business,and business retailing has gradually become the characteristics of the whole industry.In this trend,domestic commercial banks also vigorously develop consumer credit business,which can not only open up a broader market,provide new profit points,but also more calmly respond to challenges from foreign banks.However,compared with foreign banks,the development history of consumer credit business of domestic commercial banks is relatively short,and there are still some imperfections.For example,the credit system lacks completeness,the risk is difficult to predict,the credit risk management is incomplete and independent,and these consumer credit risks hinder the sustainable and healthy development of domestic commercial banks' consumer credit business.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct in-depth research in relevant fields,explore the appropriate mechanism for evaluating and measuring the hidden dangers and risks of domestic commercial banks' consumer credit,and how to cultivate the ability of employees to manage risks.The exploration of these issues will help to promote the development of consumer credit and enhance the management ability of commercial banks in China,which has great practical significance.Firstly,this paper summarizes the relevant literature on consumer credit risk at home and abroad,focusing on the latest theoretical and empirical research results.Secondly,the definition of consumer credit risk is clarified.On this basis,the types of consumer credit risk are listed briefly,and the main causes leading to consumer credit risk are analyzed,and detailed lists are given.The management mode of consumer credit risk of domestic and foreign commercial banks;the third is to introduce the basic situation,business types and risk management mode of consumer credit of X Bank as the research subject,and analyze the characteristics of main risks in consumer credit business;the fourth is to make a special analysis of the most important personal credit risk in consumer credit risk,and finally through the use of Logistic.IC regression,the establishment of X Bank personal credit scoring model,and to assess the risk,determine the corresponding credit rating.This paper uses Logistic model to make theoretical analysis and factual argumentation on the objective risks of consumer credit business of commercial banks in China.By collecting the data of X bank's consumer credit,setting up and screening various indicators of consumer credit,it constructs a personal consumer credit model through various tests,and perfects the management of consumer credit risk of commercial banks in China.Breakthrough improvements have been made.It boils down to:(1)Through the analysis of the current situation of consumer credit management in Bank X,this paper argues that the existing problems are as follows: insufficient awareness of consumer credit risk management,too centralized consumer credit business,too centralized consumer credit business,lack of internal control system,insufficient consumer credit process,insufficient innovation in risk management,etc.(2)This paper chooses age,loan term,unit nature,marriage,monthly income,education level and loan amount as reference variables,and finally constructs a personal credit scoring model based on logistic regression model.From the variable coefficients of individual credit scoring model,we can see that when other indicators are fixed,if the borrower is married,his credit score will be higher,that is,the risk of bank lending to married people is lower than that of unmarried people.In government and public institutions,the income source is relatively stable and the risk is relatively low.Therefore,the credit score assessed is relatively high,but its impact is less than that of marriage.Compared with other loan terms,borrowers with a term of 1-5 years have higher credit score and lower risk.(3)At the end of the paper,the concrete measures and suggestions to improve the risk management of consumer credit are put forward from both internal and external levels.Internal risk management measures include establishing a unified credit risk management culture;establishing an accurate risk management model;improving the operational system of commercial banks;establishing credit risk review posts;improving credit risk restraint mechanism;and establishing a credit risk early warning system.Optimizing the external wind control environment includes: perfecting the personal credit reporting system of commercial banks in China;perfecting the legal environment of consumer credit;choosing the best interest rate mode and implementing the early repayment penalty and interest system.This study has practical significance for X Bank to identify and control consumer credit risk.In addition,the model and control measures are extended to banks with similar problems,which can be used for reference by other banks.