Research On The Crowding In Or Out Effect Of Chinese Infrastructure Investment In PPP Mode

PPP mode is an important project operation mode of cooperation between government and social capital in infrastructure construction.Under the background of supply-side reform,China has carried out a large number of PPP mode infrastructure construction,which not only directly attracts private capital into the field of infrastructure construction,but also stimulates the demand of related industries.It increases investment opportunities and further stimulates private sector investment,which will generate crowding-in effect.At the same time,some PPP projects were operated badly and the expansionary fiscal policies caused high rate,which may also lead to crowding-out effect.So how about the crowding-in or crowding-out effect of PPP mode infrastructure investment on private investment? Based on the study of PPP infrastructure investment crowding-in and crowding-out mechanism on private investment,this paper makes an empirical study using relevant data from 1990 to 2016 in China.The main research contents include:Firstly,it analyzes the current situation of PPP infrastructure investment and private investment in China.China's PPP infrastructure investment has experienced from germination,explosion to normative development.And there is a weak and positive correlation between PPP infrastructure investment and private investment.Secondly,it establishes the crowding-in and crowding-out theoretical mechanism of PPP mode infrastructure investment.Based on Auchauer's and Keynesian multiplier theory and Hicks Hansen's model,the paper establishes the crowding-in mechanism and the crowding-out mechanism of private investment from the direct and indirect angles respectively.And the results obtained the main influencing variables through comprehensive analysis.Furthermore,based on the theoretical mechanism and by using VAR model and MSVAR model,this paper makes a dynamic and empirical study for the crowding-in and crowding-out effects of PPP investment in China from both linear and non-linear perspectives.The results show that PPP investment has a long-term crowding-in effect onprivate investment in China,and the crowding-in effect is more significant under the condition of high economic fluctuation.Finally,the paper puts forward to suggestions from the perspectives of government and enterprises.The government adopts the right policy orientation,and enterprises make positive efforts to promote innovation and development.The two sides will increase the efficiency of cooperation to improve the investment environment in the market,and further enhance the crowding-in effect and reduce the crowding-out effect so as to promote economic growth.