Research On Financial Risk Transmission Path Of PPP Project Under Cash Flow Constraint

In recent years,there is a growing demand for PPP model in the development of public project infrastructure in China,and the amount of investment in PPP projects is also gradually increasing.The characteristics of large investment,many participants and long franchise period determine that the financial risk of PPP project exists objectively,and the degree of harm caused by financial risk to PPP project is deepening day by day.However,the financial risk transmission path of PPP project is affected by many factors,which is a complex and diverse process.At present,the research on financial risk path is mainly concentrated in the field of enterprises,but less in the field of PPP projects.Based on the research status of cash flow,financial risk management and risk transmission at home and abroad,this paper first expounds the definition of PPP project,the cash flow characteristics of PPP project,the relationship between cash flow of PPP project and financial risk.Then,according to Hall's three-dimensional structure and heat conduction theory,the whole system of financial risk transmission path of PPP project under cash flow constraints is decomposed.The causality diagram of the financial risk transmission path subsystem of PPP project under cash flow constraint is drawn by system dynamics Vensim PLE software,and the qualitative analysis is carried out.Draw the stock flow diagram of the financial risk transmission path subsystem of PPP project under cash flow constraints,and carry out quantitative analysis.then,construct the simulation model of financial risk transmission path of PPP project under cash flow constraints.Finally,taking the PPP project of rain and sewage diversion transformation and drainage system improvement project in a certain area of Wuhan as the research object,the empirical and application analysis of the model is carried out,and through the simulation of the model,The financial risk transmission path of the PPP project in the whole life cycle is observed,and its transmission law is analyzed,and the applicability and practicality of the model are verified.The main feature of this paper is that the financial risk conduction of PPP project is qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed,and the accuracy of the model is verified by comparing the error between the simulated data and the real data.Then the model is applied to the early warning analysis of three common factors causing the financial risk ofPPP project,and it is found that the model has a good early warning effect.It plays a certain reference and reference role for the control of financial risk of PPP project in the future.