Research On Carbon Productivity And Low Carbon Economy Development Path In Guangdong Province Based On Material Flow Analysis

The rapid economic development is accompanied by the cost of energy and environment.Global carbon dioxide emissions pose a threat to climate,sea level and human life.China became a big carbon emitter in 2007.The Copenhagen conference in 2009 agreed that global greenhouse gas emissions would peak by 2020.At the 2015 Paris climate conference,China made a commitment to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy by 20% by 2030,peak carbon dioxide emissions from fossil energy,and reduce carbon dioxide per unit of GDP by 60-65% by 2030 compared with 2005,which shows that China shoulders the heavy responsibility of energy conservation and emission reduction.In 2010,Guangdong province was listed as one of China’s first low-carbon pilot areas.China’s exploration of carbon emission trading market also shows the importance of low-carbon economic development.How to achieve the balance between economic growth and carbon emission reduction,how to evaluate the carbon productivity of cities in Guangdong province,what are the driving factors,and how to achieve low-carbon economic development among regions are the issues this paper tries to study.The research object of this article is 21 cities of Guangdong province in 2007-2016 carbon productivity,the first is based on the brief analysis framework of material flow,the DMI indicator as an input variable,using the contain of the expected output efficiency of SBM models and Malmquist Luenberger index analysis of Guangdong province respectively carbon productivity for static and dynamic calculation,and then to a general,regional or municipal dimension analysis.According to the level of economic development and geographical location,Guangdong province is divided into three regions: pearl river delta,other coastal areas and mountainous areas.The static analysis shows that the difference of carbon productivity is large,the stability of the pearl river delta is the best,the other coastal areas show a downward trend,the mountain area rises steadily;Dynamic analysis shows that;The effect of technological innovation change on carbon productivity is greater than that of technological efficiency change,and there is a positive correlation between the change of carbon productivity and the level of economic development in each region.Secondly,according to the division of regional regression model is established,the five factors including the economic development level,industrial structure,urbanization level,the level of opening to the outside world and direct material input were used to analyse influence on carbon productivity,the empirical results show that the level of economic development and the third industry development promoting regional carbon productivity;Direct material input inhibited the carbon productivity in the pearl river delta and mountainous areas,but not significantly in other coastal areas.The urbanization level promotes the carbon productivity in mountainous areas,inhibits the carbon productivity in the pearl river delta region,and is not significant for other coastal areas.The level of opening-up promotes the improvement of carbon productivity in other coastal areas and hinders the carbon productivity in the pearl river delta and mountainous areas.Finally,from the economic development,industrial structure,scientific and technological level of the three regions to put forward the common low-carbon economic development recommendations,and then based on the analysis results from the three regions respectively put forward different recommendations.