Influencing Factors And Potential Analysis Of China's Agricultural Outward Foreign Direct Investment

China's agricultural foreign direct investment(FDI)is a key step for agriculture to go out.It is also an important link of the national diplomatic strategy and an indispensable step to ensure China's food security.Nowadays,the outward investment flow of agriculture in China is increasing rapidly but the total amount is small,which does not accord with the basic status of agriculture.Therefore,it is imperative to promote the further expansion and development of agricultural FDI.Among the existing studies,many scholars have made an analysis of the influencing factors and potential of OFDI.These studies have demonstrated this problem in many ways,and have given us a lot of inspiration.In the field of agriculture,the research on FDI is mostly focused on theoretical analysis,but less on empirical analysis,lacking of a strong analysis of the influencing factors and potential of FDI in agriculture.In this context,this paper draws lessons from the work of scholars and tries to make up for the gap in the field of agricultural FDI,and analyses the influencing factors and potential of China's agricultural FDI.Firstly,this paper summarizes the literature on the influencing factors and potential analysis of China's agricultural FDI,and briefly introduces the theories of foreign direct investment based on real options,comparative advantage theory,investment development cycle theory andinvestment-induced factor portfolio theory,so as to build a theoretical framework for subsequent empirical analysis.Then,according to the data of agricultural FDI from 2013 to 2017 from the Center for Foreign Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas of China,the current situation and characteristics of agricultural FDI in China are analyzed.Based on the analysis of the total amount change,regional distribution and the distribution of industrial categories and industrial links of China's agricultural FDI from 2013 to 2017,this paper points out that China's agricultural FDI has such problems as regional concentration,unbalanced regional distribution and unbalanced distribution of industrial categories.On the basis of describing the current situation and summarizing the characteristics,this paper constructs an expanded gravity model,which incorporates the market size of these countries,the distance from China,the agricultural resources endowment of the host country and the agricultural technology level of the host country into the model to analyze the influencing factors of China's agricultural FDI.The empirical results show that the agricultural technology level of host countries and the distance between China and host countries will restrict China's agricultural direct investment in host countries.The higher level of FDI in the host country will promote China's agricultural direct investment in the host country to a certain extent.The free trade agreement signed between China and the hostcountry will promote China's investment in agriculture.Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of China's agricultural FDI and the application of gravity model in the field of international investment,this paper constructs the gravity coefficient,and analyses the investment potential of different countries and regions by calculating the gravity coefficient of each country and region.According to the results of gravity coefficient,China's agricultural FDI countries or regions are divided into "huge potential type","potential type","general potential type" and "insufficient potential type".From the results,we can see that the countries in Asia belong to "huge potential type" and "potential type",while other countries except the United States,Britain,Russia and Australia belong to "general potential type" and "insufficient potential type".Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of agricultural FDI by building an expanded gravity model,this paper constructs a gravity coefficient to calculate the investment potential of each country and region,which provides reference value for agricultural enterprises to invest abroad.To a certain extent,it makes up for the blank of theoretical research on agricultural foreign direct investment.