The New Fortune Effect On Analysts' Behavior

Securities analysts are an integral part of the participants in the A-share market and the evaluation of securities analysts is a very important issue.This paper focuses on the selection of "New Fortune Best Analyst",which has the greatest influence in China.We also studied the impact of New Fortune on the behavior of analysts and whether the behavior of analysts affects the result of New Fortune selection respectively.Through comparative analysis,this paper found that in the New Fortune selection period,the number of reports written in August is higher than in other months.While the number of reports reported in August / the average number of annual had a big differences in different categories of analysts.Most of times,this ratio of analysts new on the list or continuous on the list is higher than analysts not or never on the list.At the same time,compared other times with the New Fortune selection period,analysts reported positive events such as upside earnings forecasts,published "buy" ratings and upgraded ratings a had marked difference.While,there was no significant effect on the release of negative ratings and downgrade ratings.To some degrees,whether on the list had impact of positive events,generally,analysts continuous on the list brought greater influence to increase earnings forecast,upgrade the rating.Through the logit panel data regression model,this paper found that the influence of the recommend effect,among the analyst's own factors,is not significant to the probability of up-to-list,while such as the analyst's diligence,the profit forecast accuracy,the analyst's reputation,the assets of the company,the number of funds to share brokerage,the company rating and other factors are more significant.The more diligent of the analyst,higher the accuracy of the profit forecast,once on the list,the greater the size of the security company,the more number of funds sharing brokerage with securities companies and the more commission,lead the higher probability of analysts up to the list of The New Fortune.In different years,there are different environmental factors that affect the probability of analysts on the list,but the differences of competition faced by different industry analysts are not significant.