Chinese shadow banking refers to the non-bank credit intermediary system that mostly relies on commercial banks and generally has the functions of maturity mismatch,credit mismatch,liquidity risk conversion and other regulatory arbitrage.The scale of Chinese shadow banking has developed rapidly.Since 2010,the central bank has continuously introduced credit policy to prevent excessive credit funds from flowing into the real estate market.However,the effects of relevant policies and regulations are hard to predict,and the real estate market is still hot.As an important supplement to traditional credit,shadow banking uses its own characteristics to continuously invest the credit funds into the real estate market,which makes the real estate market deviate from the expected regulatory objectives after the implementation of credit policies.On the one hand,under the impact of shadow banking,the real estate market in different regions showed more and more significant differentiation.The impact of shadow banking on the price of commercial housing has a regional heterogeneity effect;on the other hand,the expansionary credit policy has a better effect on the real estate market,shrinking credit policy often fail to achieve regulatory goals.The development of shadow banking has strengthened the asymmetric effect of credit on the price of commercial housing.Therefore,this paper believes that in-depth analysis of the impact of shadow banking on the price of commercial housing has both theoretical and practical significance.Based on the above considerations,this paper mainly completes the research of two problems.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Regional heterogeneity effect of shadow banking on the price of commercial housingIn recent years,the differentiation trend of China’s regional real estate market has become more and more obvious,which will directly affect the effect of credit policy regulation and control of the real estate market.This paper uses the quarterly data of 31 provinces in the third quarter of 2013 to the third quarter of 2013 to build a Panel-VAR model to analyze the regional heterogeneity effect of shadow banking on commercial housing prices.The results show that there are regional heterogeneous effects of shadow banking on the price in the real estate market in the eastern,central and western regions of China,and its existence can aggravate regional housing price fluctuations.(2)The asymmetric effect of shadow banking on the price of commercial housingBased on the CC-LM model of credit policy affecting commercial housing prices,this study incorporates shadow banking into the analytical framework and explains the asymmetric effect of shadow banking on commercial housing prices through the CCLM expansion model model of the real estate market including shadow banking.In the empirical part,the quarterly data of the inter-provincial regional level from 2013 to 2018 is also used.The credit impact is positively and negatively separated by HP filtering,and the impact of the shadow bank’s addition or not on the result is analyzed by the impulse response image.The results show that the addition of shadow banking promotes the stimulation of commercial housing prices by the expansion of credit shocks.On the contrary,it weakens the suppression of commercial housing prices by the impact of tightening credit,that is,the development of shadow banking has amplified this non-Symmetrical effect.Compared with the existing research,the contribution of this paper mainly lies in the test and theoretical explanation of the regional heterogeneity effect and the asymmetric effect of the impact of shadow credit on commercial housing prices,and the use of more persuasive regional level data,strengthened The scientific nature of the research conclusions. |