Monetary Policy Uncertainty,Credit Resources And R&D Investment

As early as December 1956,China had realized the importance of technological innovation to the country's core competitiveness and began to attach importance to the development of science and technology.At the second meeting of the 13 th National People's Congress in March 2019,Premier Li Keqiang proposed to insist on innovation to lead development.Innovation has always run through the development of the entire country.High-tech enterprises are the backbone of China's innovation and development,and governments at all levels have been issuing relevant preferential policies.This paper takes China's 2012-2017 A-share high-tech enterprises as a sample,and sorts out domestic and foreign related literatures according to the relationship between policy uncertainty,credit resources and enterprise innovation.Based on real option theory,information asymmetry theory,credit rationing theory and alternative financing theory,the fixed-effect model,threshold panel regression model and Sobel mediation effect analysis are used to verify the transmission mechanism between monetary policy uncertainty,credit resources and R&D investment.The differences in transmission mechanisms between different financing constraints or equity-type enterprises are studied,and how monetary policy uncertainty affects R&D output by affecting R&D investment are also studied.This paper quantifies the uncertainty of monetary policy by establishing the conditional variance estimated by GARCH(1,1)model,which lays a foundation for studying the influence of monetary policy uncertainty on the micro-behavior of high-tech enterprises.The empirical analysis draws the following conclusions:(1)The increase in uncertainty in monetary policy will reduce the R&D investment of enterprises;(2)credit resources play a significant intermediary role between monetary policy uncertainty and R&D investment,and the mediation effect is only significant in non-state-owned enterprises,not significant in state-owned enterprises.;(3)Among the transmission mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty and R&D investment,commercial credit resources channels have significant threshold effects on the degree of financing constraints,but bank credit resources channels don't have significant threshold effects on the degree of financing constraints;(4)there is a significant substitution effect between bank credit and commercial credit on R&D investment;(5)R&D investment has a significant mediating effect between monetary policy uncertainty and R&D output.Moreover,the increase in the uncertainty of monetary policy has more inhibitory effect on the invention patent output than on the non-invention patent output.Therefore,in order to alleviate the financing dilemma of high-tech enterprises and the adverse effects of monetary policy uncertainty on high-tech enterprises' R&D investment,the government should build a more complete financial system,provide more convenient financing conditions for high-tech enterprises,and maintain transparency,robustness and sustainability of monetary policy,reasonably guide enterprises' expectations of monetary policy.A comprehensive credit rating system should be constructed to reduce the degree of information asymmetry between banks and enterprises,and enterprises should expand financing channels and reduce the interference of external financial environment changes on R&D decisions.