Research On Evolution Characteristics And Promotion Models Of Green Total Factor Productivity In China's Manufacturing Industry

With the deepening of the "four modernizations" construction,China's manufacturing industry has developed rapidly,and has become an important support for China's national economy.However,behind the vigorous development,problems such as excess capacity,low production efficiency,waste of resources,high pollution emissions,and lack of independent innovation ability have restricted the development of China's manufacturing industry.At the same time,the shortage of non-renewable energy stocks and the energy and environment situation that the environmental carrying capacity is close to the limit restrict the development of China's manufacturing industry.To cope with these difficulties,the Chinese government promulgated the strategy of "China Manufacturing Industry 2025",which calls for innovation-driven and green-driven development of manufacturing industry.The continuous improvement of green total factor productivity(green TFP),which represents the development quality of manufacturing industry,is the key to achieve green development of manufacturing industry.Firstly,a global SBM-GML index model including four inputs of labor,capital,energy and R&D personnel and three outputs of main business income,carbon dioxide emissions and environmental pollution comprehensive index is constructed to estimate green TFP of 27 manufacturing industries in China from 2002 to 2016,and the green T of manufacturing industry in China from 2002 to 2016 is analyzed statically.The change characteristics and industry differences of FP,and the evolution trend of green TFP in Chinese manufacturing industry are explored dynamically.Then,the effects of environmental regulation,R&D investment and other factors on green TFP are explored by using econometric model.Finally,using real data,the combination model of influencing factors for upgrading green TFP in Chinese manufacturing industry is explored by using qualitative and comparative analysis of fuzzy sets,in order to formulate and promote China.The policy suggestions of green TFP in manufacturing industry provide scientific basis.The results show that:(1)From 2002 to 2016,the green TFP of Chinese manufacturing industry is on the rise in general,and this state has significant stage characteristics.From the decomposition results,we can see that the reason for the growth of green TFP in manufacturing industry is that the promotion of technological progress is greater than the inhibition of technological efficiency.(2)During thesample period,the green TFP of manufacturing industry has significant industry differences,and the mean value of green TFP is in the order of severe > light >moderate from large to small.Among them,the largest and smallest green TFP of 27 manufacturing industries are transportation industry and communication equipment manufacturing industry respectively.(3)The growth of green TFP in manufacturing industry is promoted by the intensity of environmental regulation,R&D investment,labor quality and average scale of industry than by the degree of capital deepening,ownership structure,energy structure and foreign direct investment.The above eight factors have different effects on green TFP due to different emission intensity coefficients among industries.(4)There are four models to improve the combination of factors affecting green TFP in manufacturing industry.Model 1 emphasizes the existence of environmental regulation intensity,labor quality,industry average scale,capital deepening degree and energy structure,as well as the absence of R&D investment and foreign direct investment;Model 2 emphasizes the existence of R&D investment,labor quality and industry average scale,as well as capital deepening degree,energy structure and foreign direct investment.The lack of FDI;Model 3emphasizes the intensity of environmental regulation,R&D investment,the existence of industry average scale,and the lack of FDI,capital deepening and ownership structure;Model 4 emphasizes the existence of environmental regulation intensity,R&D investment,industry average scale and FDI,as well as the lack of labor quality and capital deepeningFinally,based on the effect and promotion models of the influencing factors of the manufacturing green TFP,combined with the development characteristics of the manufacturing industry,this paper proposes policy recommendations to promote the green TFP of the manufacturing industry and improve the quality of manufacturing development.